Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Launceston 24th November
We head to Launceston on Sunday night where we see the running of the Heats of the Tassie Golden Apple and they both look to be competitive races with plenty on mainland interest.
The plays for the night start in race in race one being Out of Eden who can out sprint the favourite.
Watch it Happen looks to get every chance to get back into the winners list in race three.
Just Tiger will get his chance to put his hand up as a major player in the following week’s final by winning.
Smokescreen gets the draw to make amends for his narrow defeat last time in race eight.
RACE 1: 17:34pm Family Fun Day Sunday 1st December Pace 2200m
The first of the night is for the 3yo and older pacers. SPOT RULER (3) is a quality mare resuming and looks to find a winnable race s look for her to push forward and find the lead and take plenty of running down. OUT OF EDEN (4) has created a good impression since crossing the Bass Strait so will make a race of it and is a huge player. GOTTA LOCKHEED (1) is the huge query coming down from NSW where was thereabouts but has had a stable change and draws the pole and has gate speed so will be well supported. MUCHO MOVER (5) and JUSTIFY (6) will be looking fight out the minor first four placing.
TOP PICK: Out of Eden (4) happy to go her way.
DANGERS: Spot Ruler (3) is the danger along with Gotta Lockheed (1)
ROUGHIE: Justify (4) can run fourth on his best behaviour
RATINGS: 4-1 3-5 6-2
SUGGESTED BET: Out of Eden 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1 3-1 3 $20 flexi 1000%
LIKELY LEADER: Gotta Lockheed will look to kick through early.
RACE 2: 18:03pm Book Your Christmas Function With Us For 1st December Pace 2200m
This is for the 3yo and older maiden pacers and we see a debutante from the Emma Stewart stable in OUR ROCKER (1) who is sure to go around short odds from the pole and should be winning as this is a very thin race. KINGOFTHEKLONDIKE (10) was ok on debut and will be better for the run and the bigger track suits so if there is a danger he could be the one. MARV DREAMING (5) is capable on his night so if brings his best can run into placing along with the likes of PISTOL QUEEN (12) and OBLER (13) who both draw out the back. A SHADOW OF DOUBT (9) draws ideally and will follow through behind the favourite if emergency doesn’t gain a run so is a must for exotic players to include.
TOP PICK: Our Rocker (1) should be winning.
DANGERS: Kingoftheklondike (10) is the danger along with A Shadow Of Doubt (9).
ROUGHIE: Marv Dreaming (5) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 1-5 9 10-12 13-2 3 4 6 7 11
SUGGESTED BET: Our Rocker 8units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-9 10-5 9 10 12 13 $20 flexi 250% - 1-5 9 10 12 13-9 10 $20 flexi 250%
LIKELY LEADER: Our Rocker should do enough to hold them out.
RACE 3: 18:33pm Stacey Lear Photography Pace 1680m
This is for the 47-52 rated pacers and brings an even field together. WATCH IT HAPPEN (3) continues to hold his form and gets a good draw so looks to get his chance to get back into the winners list. KEAYANG KEVIN (1) will be looking to take use of his draw so has to be kept safe. HAY MIKI (2) had every chance last week and this is slightly stronger so will have to improve to win. LAID BACK KENNY (9) was a good winner last week and had a good trailing draw so has to be included. GRINNING AGAIN (6), ALBERIO (8) and GOTTAHAVEAHOBBIE (10) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Watch it Happen (3) is the one they have to beat.
DANGERS: Keayang Kevin (1) is the danger along with Laid Back Kenny (9).
ROUGHIE: Gottahaveahobbie (10) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 3-1 2 9-6 8 10 11-4 5 7
SUGGESTED BET: Watch it Happen 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 6 8 9 10-1 2 6 8 9 10 $30 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Keayang Kevin will be looking to hold up but will get tested.
RACE 4: 19:03pm Ladbrokes Blackbook Stakes 2200m
This is for the 53-57 pacers. CEE TEE CHELSEA (4) bounced back into the winners list last time and is capable of going back to back from the draw. NO NUKES SKIPPER (5) is racing well and has early speed so should be on speed and will take holding out. YARECKON IM SWEET (10) and DONNY IN PARIS (11) are both racing well and if they do run along they will get their chances to get into the finish late. KERALA STAR (2), MAGOMEDOV (6) and IDEN BLACK PRINCE (7) are a trio to include as are capable if the breaks come their way.
TOP PICK: Cee Tee Chelsea (4) happy to lean her way.
DANGERS: No Nukes Skipper (5) is a danger along with Kerala Star (2).
ROUGHIE: Iden Black Prince (7) is always a chance at odds in these races.
RATINGS: 4-2 5 6 7 10 11-1 3 8 9
SUGGESTED BET: Cee Tee Chelsea 2units win- Kerala Star 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 2 4 5 6 7 10 $40 flexi 33.3%
LIKELY LEADER: Kerala Star and PUNTARNO Stride will battle for the early lead.
RACE 5: 19:33pm Nutrien AG Solutions Tassie Golden Apple Heat One 2200m
This is the first heat of the Tassie Golden Apple and brings a handy field together. BLITZERN (12) is the class runner and gets 30m over the short trip so will need a touch of luck early and if comes his way he can overcome it be the hardest top beat. JAMES IN CHARGE (6) was good winning in much easier class and despite having options of easier races he is looking to take a huge step so if pings early he has showed he can run a good half so is the X factor. JUST TIGER (3) is a nice horse he is well up to taking this out as will be fitter for his first up win from similar conditions so keep very safe. GLENLEDI ELVIS (10) will be looking to step early as if he does he comes right into calcultions. WE SALUTE YOU (1), ROYAL APPOINTMENT (2) and JO AN JO (11) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Just Tiger (3) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Blitzern (12) is the danger along with James in Charge (6).
ROUGHIE: Glenledi Elvis (10) looks the best value play.
RATINGS: 3-6 10 12-1 2 11-4 5 7 8 9
SUGGESTED BET: Just Tiger 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 6 10 11 12-1 2 6 10 11 12 $30 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Rockandahardplace and Pardoe Plugga will be looking to ping early.
RACE 6: 20:07pm Ladbrokes Odds Surge Pace 2200m
Here we have a 58-63 rated affair and the consistent ARDEN ROANOKE (7) will be looking to go one better than last week. He draws wide so early tactics will be interesting but I feel his better driven with a sit so if close enough has the speed to be in the finish. SHOOIN (6) was the winner of the Dynamo Series last week which was huge payday for connections and this race looks within grasp especially if gets on speed early as his a tough one to get past. IMPULZE (8) will need a gap at the right time but if it comes his racing well enough to win so keep safe. MISTER FINNIGAN (5) and SERENGETI SUNRISE (11) do have the ability to be in the finish if the breaks come their way.
TOP PICK: Arden Roanoke (7) just lean his way.
DANGERS: Shooin (6) is the danger along with Impulze (8).
ROUGHIE: Mister Finnigan (5) looks the value play.
RATINGS: 6 7-5 8 10 11-1 2 3 4 9
SUGGESTED BET: Arden Roanoke and Shooin 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6 7-6 7-1 5 8 10 11 $25 flexi 250% - 6 7-1 5 8 10 11-6 7 $20 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Shooin will be looking to get on speed with Karalta Artemis looking to use his draw to hold early.
Race 7: 20:42pm Nutrien AG Solutions Tassie Golden Apple Heat Two 2200m
This is the second heat of the Tassie Golden Apple and we see former star youngster BEYOND DELIGHT (11) looking to find his mojo. He comes off 30m so will need to begin and from there be close to get his chance to round them up late so is the one to beat. FRANCO PROMACHOS (6) returns after a couple of wins in much easier grade similar to his stablemate in the first heat so he will be hoping to ping early and if bullied his way to the top he will take some catching. MAGNETIC TERROR (7) draws the top of the track so hopefully that will help him step early as if does he comes into calculations. STEPPING STONES (5), THE CROUPIER (8) and KEAYANG FITZY (9) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Beyond Delight (11) happy to go his way despite the backmark.
DANGERS: Franco Promachos (6) is a danger along with Magnetic Terror (7).
ROUGHIE: Stepping Stones (5) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 11-5 6 7-1 8 9-2 3 4 10
SUGGESTED BET: Beyond Delight 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 11-1 5 6 7 8 9-1 5 6 7 8 9 $30 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Will He Pike and Major Davvin can ping early along with Stepping Stones looking to push forward.
Race 8 21:17pm Tassie Golden Apple 1st December Pace 1680m
This is for the 3yo and older pacers over the sprint trip. MACH MAJOR (7) has been a costly conveyance since coming across from NZ and draws wide here so will need luck early but can win. SMOKESCREEN (2) had his chance at first local run but will be fitter so if finds the top will give some cheek. TELL THE BARTMAN (11) and NOT YET MUM (12) are both more than capable if the breaks come their way from out back so keep safe. DUCANE (3), WEONA EAGLE (5) and SOHO UNDERTAKER (6) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Smokescreen (2) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Mach Major (7) is the danger along with Tell the Bartman (11).
ROUGHIE: Ducane (3) has ability so wouldn’t shock first up.
RATINGS: 2-3 7 11 12-5 6-1 8 9 10-4
SUGGESTED BET: Smokescreen 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-3 5 6 7 11 12-3 5 6 7 11 12 $30 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Smokescreen will be looking for the early lead.
Race 9: 21:47pm Ladbrokes yard Comments Stakes 2200m
The last of the night is for the 64-69 rated pacers. INDELIBLE (4) created a huge impression last time in winning five from six so despite resuming she will take plenty of holding out. MAYOR OF ELWOOD (1) done it easy last time and is looking for the hat-trick and from the draw looks to get every chance. MAJOR CELBRITY (2) creates plenty of interest from the Emma Stewart stable from a soft draw. His form is nothing to get excited about but is open to improvement back with original trainer. LETSGOBRO (6) looks the most likely to run into fourth placing.
TOP PICK: Mayor of Elwood (1) leaning his way with race fitness on his side.
DANGERS: Major Celebrity (2) is the danger along with Indelible (4)
ROUGHIE: Letsgobro (6) is next best.
RATINGS: 1-2 4-6-3 5 7
SUGGESTED BET: Mayor of Elwood 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 4-2 4 $20 flexi 1000%
LIKELY LEADER: Mayor of Elwood will be looking to hold up early.
