Melton, Saturday 16 November

Form Analysis by Craig Rail

 

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: VALTINO (9) produced a massive performance when third behind MISTER BLINDSIDE (8) in his heat of this series and will prove hard to beat. He galloped away and made up many lengths to be placed and he was runner up in the Victoria Derby prior so his form is very strong. REMUS PHOENIX (5) led out then took cover and finished second behind MISTER BLINDSIDE (8). He has the best draw out of the major chances so he must be rated highly. MISTER BLINDSIDE (8) has improved on his manners recently but being drawn on the inside of the second line is a concern. He worked forward to find the lead and ran along at a rapid rate when he impressively won his heat. KYVALLEY MICHAEL (7) is racing consistently and LOCKSLEY CAVALIER (10) is a value place hope if he can deliver a fool proof display.

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely early leader), 2,3,4,6

SELECTIONS: VALTINO (9), REMUS PHOENIX (5), MISTER BLINDSIDE (8), KYVALLEY MICHAEL (7)

RATINGS: 9/ 5,8/ 7/ 10/ 4,6

SUGGESTED BET: VALTINO (9) to win

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: MACH DAN (10) races best when he is in front or close to the pace so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage but his form his hard to fault. He finished fourth in the Len Smith Mile (Group 1), followed with a second behind Australia’s champion pacer Leap To Fame in the Smoken Up Sprint then followed with a third in the Victoria Cup. RAKERO REBEL (11) steps up from the Mares Classics to the genuine open class performers tonight but her run in the Make Mine Cullen last week was outstanding as she motored to the line in a last half of 54.7 seconds! She will be dangerous if she can gain the right run into the race. PERFECT CLASS (5) is a tough pacer and worked hard in the run when second behind Cantfindabettorman in the 4&5yo Championship last outing. He is likely to progress forward at the start and should go well. LIKE A WILDFIRE (2) won the Swan Hill Cup in record time last outing, BULLETPROOF BOY (3) was an impressive winner seven days ago and TRIPLE EIGHT (7) is aiming for a winning hat trick in the open grade so it is a quality field.

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 1,3,5

SELECTIONS: MACH DAN (10), RAKERO REBEL (11), PERFECT CLASS (5), LIKE A WILDFIRE (2)

RATINGS: 10/ 5,11/ 2,3,7/ 1,6/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: MACH DAN (10) each way

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: MUFASA METRO (4) broke through for a deserved victory when he led throughout and held off the challenge of QUEEN ELIDA (5) last week. He does have several fast beginners drawn on his inside this evening but he has been very consistent against the elite trotters and must be considered as a winning chance again. PLYMOUTH CHUBB (2) has performed soundly at his two starts since resuming from a long spell and should be drawing close to his peak fitness. He is a brilliant beginner, is ideally drawn and did well after racing without cover at his latest attempt so he must be respected. HARRY STAMPER (1) has struck trouble at his past two attempts but he was runner up behind Australia’s champion trotter Just Believe in both the Shepparton and Ballarat Cups recently so he is worth another chance from the pole position. QUEEN ELIDA (5) finished determinedly for a close second last week and must be included amongst the leading chances. KEAYANG CHUCKY (7) is also racing in sparkling form and is a winning chance in another top race. 

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,3,4,5,7

SELECTIONS: MUFASA METRO (4), PLYMOUTH CHUBB (2), HARRY STAMPER (1), KEAYANG CHUCKY (7)

RATINGS: 4/ 1,2,7/ 5/ 6,9

SUGGESTED BET: PLYMOUTH CHUBB (2) each way

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: ENCHAUFFOUR (2) has the barrier draw advantage over his two main rivals and after a third in the Redwood Classic and a victory (dead-heat) in his heat of this series, he should be in front for a very long way. COMMODUS (7) won the Super Series Final from the same barrier draw in September and he was able to draw level on the line to win (dead-heat) with ENCHAUFFOUR (2) in his heat. His effort was better than ENCHAUFFOUR (2) on the day but he again will have to be doing the work from the outside of the front line while ENCHAUFFOUR (2) is drawn to lead. RAINBOW JESTER (13) is a smart New South Wales trained trotter, which finished third in his heat after working around the field to find the lead. He is a multiple Classic winning colt that cannot be underestimated. REY BAILANDO (4) continues to improve with the benefit of racing and won his heat with ease. He did record a mile rate, which was exactly three seconds slower than that recorded by ENCHAUFFOUR (2) and COMMODUS (7) and his heat appeared to be the weaker of the two on paper but he is on the rise.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 3,4,7

SELECTIONS: ENCHAUFFOUR (2), COMMODUS (7), RAINBOW JESTER (13), REY BAILANDO (4)

RATINGS: 2,7/ 13/ 4/ 1,3,12

SUGGESTED BET: ENCHAUFFOUR (2) to win

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: HESITATE (3) is a classy colt and followed a win in the Tatlow Stakes with a victory in his heat last week, where he led out, took cover and drove through along the sprint lane. He is very tough and will take beating. MAC BON (2) produced the most eye-catching performance out of the heats last week, where he was held up for a run at a vital stage and stormed home late. He won at his first start for the Luke McCarthy stable at Penrith prior and he appears to be a value chance. ARSENIO (7) progressed forward to move up without cover and went down fighting when a brave second last week. He finished sixth (6m) in the Super Series Final prior so he must be rated highly. FAIRPLAY (12) remains undefeated from two starts and was resuming since June when he won his heat last week so he should have benefited from the run.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 1,7

SELECTIONS: HESITATE (3), MAC BON (2), ARSENIO (7), FAIRPLAY (12)  

RATINGS: 3/ 2,7/ 12/ 1,8,10/ 13

SUGGESTED BET: HESITATE (3) to win

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: BAY OF BISCAY (2) began well and ended up being in the trail behind SOME AMERICAN (4) when he got up to win via the sprint lane last week. He is a very tough competitor and the same scenario is likely to occur here so he must be rated highly. SOME AMERICAN (4) certainly deserves to win a feature race having been placed in all of his ten starts for the season and has been runner up at his past seven attempts including the Super Series and Victoria Derby Finals. He possesses brilliant gate speed and should be in front for a long way from his good draw. MIKI TO SUCCESS (9) has had a prosperous season having won the Super Series Final and finished third in the Victoria Derby. He will be disadvantaged to being drawn on the second line but he is versatile and should run a big race again. KINGMAN (5) was headed off from the pole position and ended up being three back on the markers when a creditable third last week. He is very strong and is not without a chance. COLLECTIVE WORKS (12) and RAVISHING SLOY (13) both performed gallantly in their heat performances but they will have to do a lot of chasing from their poor draw.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 2

SELECTIONS: BAY OF BISCAY (2), SOME AMERICAN (4), MIKI TO SUCCESS (9), KINGMAN (5)

RATINGS: 2,4/ 9/ 5/ 12,13/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: BAY OF BISCAY (2) to win

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: KISS (7) trailed the leader from the pole position and finished off best to win her heat comfortably last week. She is a very versatile filly that finished fourth in the Super Series Final and was second in the Victoria Oaks so she is capable of overcoming the wide draw. SWEETNIKKILOU (4) finished off fast in a slick final quarter of 26.4 seconds in her heat performance last week. She should be reaching her peak form after having two starts back from a break and rates as a value chance. EUREKA JO (9) led throughout to win her heat. She finished a close third in the Super Series Final and was fifth in the Victoria Oaks so she should be competitive again. STITCHED UP DAN (8) possesses a powerful finishing burst and will be suited if there is a genuine tempo throughout.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 4,5,7

SELECTIONS: KISS (7), SWEETNIKKILOU (4), EUREKA JO (9), STITCHED UP DAN (8)

RATINGS: 7/ 4,9/ 2,8/ 11

SUGGESTED BET: KISS (7) to win

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: GATESYS GEM (3) is an outstanding filly, which led throughout to win the Tatlow Stakes then followed with a second behind Vytis in the Redwood Classic. She is likely to roll to the lead shortly after the start and will take catching. PROHIBITED GRACE (1) won the Nutrien Classic in April and is better than her recent form suggests. She galloped away and lost her chance when unplaced in the Redwood Classic last outing and she is a good chance of ending up being behind the leader now. SASSY GALLEON (10) finished fifth in the Redwood Classic then was taken up to Menangle on Tuesday, where she galloped away in a heat of the Arizona Blue series. She has ability when she can put it altogether and should be working home well. The Super Series winner KEAYANG KURKI (7), the debutante TRACY THE JET (9) and KINVARA KATE (11) are all worth thought in multiple combinations.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 1,7

SELECTIONS: GATESYS GEM (3), PROHIBITED GRACE (1), SASSY GALLEON (10), KEAYANG KURKI (7)

RATINGS: 3/ 1,10/ 7/ 9,11

SUGGESTED BET: GATESYS GEM (3) to win

 

Race 9:

 

OVERVIEW: VIOLET STANFORD (2) won at her first eight starts then took on the champion filly Keayang Zahara at her next four attempts. She is perfectly drawn and gets her chance to return to winning form. MALIBUU (6) is racing in fine form at Menangle and recorded a slick mile of 1.55.6 at her latest victory so she looms as the logical danger. She won a heat of this series at Maryborough last season and finished eighth in the Final. JILLIBY BALLERINI (11) finished third in the Need for Speed Princess Final then followed with a second in the Victoria Oaks so she has the class to test this field. SKY LINDY (5) is a maiden but she has been placed eight times this season and she performed very well at a Shepparton trial effort last week so she could fill a place again.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,6

SELECTIONS: VIOLET STANFORD (2), MALIBUU (6), JILLIBY BALLERINI (11), SKY LINDY (5)

RATINGS: 2/ 6,11/ 5/ 1,8

SUGGESTED BET: VIOLET STANFORD (2) to win

 

Race 10:

 

OVERVIEW: LET HER ROLL (6) was having her first run since a second in the Super Series Final when she finished off in a sizzling final half of 55.3 seconds to win her heat of this series last week. She is an outstanding filly that boasts six wins and two seconds from her eight starts to date so she must be rated highly. SUGAR PIE HONEY (4) raced without cover but still appeared to be a little below her best when a distant fourth last week. She moves to the front line now and she dominated her rivals from the front running role in the Breeders Challenge Final at Menangle prior so she is worth another chance. NAMAKA (1) did some work early before gaining cover behind SUGAR PIE HONEY (4) when she chased gamely for second in her heat performance. She is perfectly drawn so she must be respected. MY LITTLE BO (8) finished hard when an eye-catching third in her heat last week and has a trailing draw behind NAMAKA (1) so she rates as a knockout chance.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 1,6

SELECTIONS: LET HER ROLL (6), SUGAR PIE HONEY (4), NAMAKA (1), MY LITTLE BO (8)

RATINGS: 6/ 1,4/ 8/ 11/ 7,10

SUGGESTED BET: LET HER ROLL (6) to win