Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: OLD VILLA BOY (5) is resuming since a ninth at Melton in June and hasn’t been to the trials but he is the class runner of the field and will take beating if he is somewhere near his peak form. TEN NO SPUR (3) was held up for a run at a vital stage and powered to the line when an eye-catching second behind Atego Dawn at Bendigo last week. It was a good performance last time out and he is capable of going one better. STOCKMAN PETER (6) ran a better race for third at Yarra Valley seven days ago and he is a tough campaigner when he is at his best form. He is making his standing start debut but this is a suitable assignment if he steps away cleanly. SONARMI JOH (7) is usually consistent against this class and boasts a consistent standing start record so he is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 4 (10m), 5 (20m)
SELECTIONS: OLD VILLA BOY (5), TEN NO SPUR (3), STOCKMAN PETER (6), SONARMI JOH (7)
RATINGS: 3,5/ 6/ 7/ 1,4/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: OLD VILLA BOY (5) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: KWICK SAND (7) has been racing in great form and looms as the horse to beat. He recorded a slick mile rate of 1.54.6 when he scored at Melton three starts ago and finished third behind the smart pacer Waterfront at Ballarat last week. WE FAVOUR ROSIE (4) is an underrated filly that is nearing a win against this class having been runner up in three of her past four starts. She moved up without cover and went down fighting when second behind Batton Rouge at Hamilton last outing. GEMAEDDE (3) switched back to the inside late and finished off well for fourth behind Super Code at Hamilton last outing. She is a consistent filly and looms as one of the leading chances. YNOBE NOVA (5) led out then took cover when she won at Melton three starts ago. She should be suited to competing over the sprint distance and is worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 7 (possible leader), 5
SELECTIONS: KWICK SAND (7), WE FAVOUR ROSIE (4), GEMAEDDE (3), YNOBE NOVA (5)
RATINGS: 7/ 3,4/ 5/ 2
SUGGESTED BET: KWICK SAND (7) to win
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: KARAS DREAM (3) worked hard to try and find the lead early and went down fighting when a game second behind Daisy Bouchea at Hamilton last outing. She has been placed in two of her three starts since resuming and is a good chance of finding the lead so she must be respected. SCAR (7) progressed forward to find a prominent position and produced a strong performance to win at Terang two starts ago. He met a much stronger field at Hamilton last outing and broke stride when being tackled on the home turn so he is worth another chance. THE FIERY SUNSET (5) ran home nicely for third (1m) at Hamilton last outing and is worth thought along TUBS NOW SLIM (6), which is resuming but performed nicely at the trials at Maryborough on Sunday.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 6,7
SELECTIONS: KARAS DREAM (3), SCAR (7), THE FIERY SUNSET (5), TUBS NOW SLIM (6)
RATINGS: 3,7/ 5/ 6/ 4,9
SUGGESTED BET: KARAS DREAM (3) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: NOOSA BOY (7) has been promising a maiden victory for some time and was driven aggressively when a game second behind Talknplay at Shepparton last outing so he must be respected. MIDNITE DESIRE (10) has been placed in five of her past six starts and finished off quickly when a close second behind Let’s Go Again at Cranbourne last outing. She is awkwardly drawn but deserves to break through for a win. GOODTIME MAE (5) is likely to find this assignment to be easier than her recent unplaced efforts and is a possible improver. She had little luck in finding a position in the early stages and battled on well for fifth last week. RIVIERA ROSE (9) is resuming since March but she has been placed in four of her past six starts and joins trainer Zac Steenhuis so she cannot be left out of calculations.
EARLY SPEED: 7 (possible leader), 1,5
SELECTIONS: NOOSA BOY (7), MIDNITE DESIRE (10), GOODTIME MAE (5), RIVIERA ROSE (9)
RATINGS: 7/ 5,10/ 9/ 8
SUGGESTED BET: NOOSA BOY (7) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: BIZZNESS CLASS (7) continues to race in good form and should be competitive despite drawing on the outside of the front line. He did well to finish as close as he did from an awkward draw at Cranbourne last outing and he worked hard when a brave fourth in a mile rate of 1.55.8 at Charlton prior. TOPSIES BLING (3) settled in the second half of the field and produced a big finish when an eye-catching second (nose) behind Dance Affair last outing. She should be suited to competing in a small field of seven runners and is worth an investment. BANKSOFTHEMURRAY (6) is a speedy pacer and will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment so he is worth an investment. STEEL RULER (4) will also appreciate a drop back in grade and has the ability to figure in the finish.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 1,5
SELECTIONS: BIZNESS CLASS (7), TOPSIES BLING (3), BANKSOFTHEMURRAY (6), STEEL RULER (4)
RATINGS: 7/ 3,6/ 4,5/ 2/ 1
SUGGESTED BET: BIZZNESS CLASS (7) each way
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: OPTIMAL (7) is racing in peak form and looms as one of the leading chances again. He was doing his best work at the end when fourth at Charlton last outing and put in two wins in succession back in July. OUR ULTIMATE LAYLA (8) was resuming since December when fifth behind Batton Rouge on August 21. She should be fitter from that performance and this is a drop back in class so she must be respected. GOODTIME MIKI (6) is a fast beginner and will take catching if he is able to get across and find the lead shortly after the start. He led throughout at a Warragul victory on July 22. ODIN (3) recorded a slick mile rate of 1.57.2 when he led throughout at Melton three starts ago. He attempted to lead throughout when sixth at Ballarat last outing but that was a stronger field and this event appears to be more suitable.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,5,6
SELECTIONS: OPTIMAL (7), OUR ULTIMATE LAYLA (8), GOODTIME MIKI (6), ODIN (3)
RATINGS: 7/ 3,6,8/ 5/ 1,4
SUGGESTED BET: OPTIMAL (7) each way
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: HOT ROCKS (9) is resuming since a close second behind Alot Like Louie at Swan Hill in February but he finished a close second behind the smart filly Vague Beauty at a recent Melton trial performance so he is clearly the horse to beat. MR TEDDY (4) didn’t have much luck from the outside of the second line when third at Hamilton last week. He has been placed in three of his past five starts and is better drawn for this assignment so he must be respected. BREATHE EASY (2) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and finished fourth in a slick mile rate of 1.54.3 last outing so he rates as a value hope. THE TRI LINE (6) won at Ararat four starts ago and worked home reasonably well for third at Hamilton last week so he is worth a ticket each way.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 4,5,7
SELECTIONS: HOT ROCKS (9), MR TEDDY (4), BREATHE EASY (2), THE TRI LINE (6)
RATINGS: 9/ 4/ 2,6/ 5,7,8
SUGGESTED BET: HOT ROCKS (9) to win
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: RUBY WINGATE (7) hasn’t had much luck recently and appears to be well placed against this line up so she is worth following. JEREMY LOU (11) was shuffled back on the markers after commencing from the inside of the second line and held his own against stronger opposition at Yarra Valley last week. He is poorly drawn but is capable of improving on his numerical form. DEEBRAXTON (10) competed in the same race at Yarra Valley last week and finished second after trailing the leader throughout. He led throughout at a Horsham victory three starts ago and should be competitive again. MARKLEIGH CAZ (2) possesses a powerful finishing burst and has been placed in six of her past seven starts. She finished off fast to win at Charlton then was unsuited in a slowly run race at Cranbourne last week.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,3,7
SELECTIONS: RUBY WINGATE (7), JEREMY LOU (11), DEEBRAXTON (10), MARKLEIGH CAZ (2)
RATINGS: 7/ 2,10,11/ 1,3,4
SUGGESTED BET: RUBY WINGATE (7) each way
