Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

Launceston 1st September

We head to Launceston on Sunday night for a handy nine event card so let’s find some winners but with Emma Stewart in town we will play around the other races to find some value.

Stranded Lollipop gets one more chance in race five as this looks easier than past couple.

Camelot Jedimaster should bounce back in race two.

Keayang Fitzy continues to race well and can win the open class race.

Letsgobro can find the lead and send us home on a winning note with also a small saver on Jeremy Wells.

RACE 1: 17:19pm Members Pace 2200m

The first of the night is for the 3yo fillies and older mares. HOW SWEET (1) was a dominant winner on debut for the Emma Stewart stable in easier company but coming up with the pole she will lead and from there take plenty of catching. ULTIMACTION (4) created a good impression last time in and will make a race of it with the above so is the obvious danger. TAMBROS TILLY (3) and SVITOLINA LEIS (6) have both been close up of late and will be fighting it out for the third placing.

TOP PICK: How Sweet (1) is clearly the one to beat.

DANGERS: Ultimaction (4) is the danger along with Svitolina Leis (6).

ROUGHIE: Tambros Tilly (3) is next best

RATINGS: 1-4-3 5-2 6

SUGGESTED BET: How Sweet 8units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-4-5 $20 flexi 2000% - First four 1-4-5-3 $10 flexi 1000%

LIKELY LEADER: How Sweet should hold Tambros Tilly early.

RACE 2: 17:52pm Life Members Pace 1680m

This is for the 3yo and older over the sprint trip. CAMELOT JEDIMASTER (1) is well placed but will need to boot through early and hold and if he does he will prove too good for his rivals but if gets crossed the race opens up. IDEN LADY LINCOLN (2) comes off a freshen up after the 4yo Sires Series and draws to get a soft trip so looks a danger. SWMINTHERIVER (3) will be the to look to ping across early and if does can figure. CRACK THE VAULT (4) and MUCHO MOVER (5) have been close up of late and will be again in the small field so include for the exotics.

TOP PICK: Camelot Jedimaster (1) happy to give him another chance.

DANGERS: Iden Lady Lincoln (2) looks a danger along with Crack the Vault (4).

ROUGHIE: Mucho Mover (5) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1-2-4-3 5-6

SUGGESTED BET: Camelot Jedimaster 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 4-field $20 flexi 250%

LIKELY LEADER: Swimintheriver will be looking to cross Camelot Jedimaster early.

RACE 3: 18:22pm Find Us On Facebook Stakes 2200m

This is for the 3yos with no more than one lifetime win and we get to see a pretty smart type from the Emma Stewart stable in the way of FREE TO PLAY (1) who only resumed with a narrow win but is sure to have come on from that and draws the pole so should be winning. WEONA EAGLE (8) is a progressive type who won well last week so will look to follow the above everywhere and have the last crack. FLO JO CARVALHO (2), FRANCO TYSON (4) and NANCYS HOPE (5) are a trio to include for the placing.

TOP PICK: Free to Play (1) is clearly the one to beat.

DANGER: Weona Eagle (8) looks the one possible danger.

ROUGHIE: Flo Jo Carvalho (2) looks the most likely to run third.

RATINGS: 1-8-2-4 5-3 6 7

SUGGESTED BET: Free to Play 6units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-8-2 $20 flexi 2000% - First four 1-8-2-4 5 $20 flexi 1000%

LIKELY LEADER: Free to Play looks the leader.

RACE 4: 18:52pm Female Drivers Championship Sunday 20th October Stakes 2200m

Here we have a 50-53 rated affair and we another short priced favourite from the Stewart stable by the way of FREEASABYRD (9). She resumes from a break but has drawn to push through early so will take plenty of beating. KENYA (6) was a tough winner last week so with a repeat looks likely to fill a placing along with the likes of MAGMEDOV (2), COLBY ART (4), GOBSMACKED (5) and MIKI SANZ (8) who are capable of running into the minor money.

TOP PICK: Freeasabyrd (9) should be winning.

DANGERS: Kenya (6) looks a danger along with Miki Sanz (8).

ROUGHIE: Gobsmacked (5) looks the best at odds.

RATINGS: 9-6 8-2 4 5-1 3 7

SUGGESTED BET: Freeasabyrd 8units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 9-6 8-2 4 5 6 8 $24 flexi 300%

LIKELY LEADER: Yareckon Im Sweet should hold them early.

RACE 5: 19:29pm Happy Fathers Day Pace 1680m

This is a race for the non winners over the short trip. STRANDED LOLLIPOP (12) has been beaten as favourite at her past two when just found one better so this easier assignment she gets every chance to breakthrough. IDEN OLIVER (1) creates plenty of interest of the pole as showed good ability last time in and has since had a stable chance so looks the danger. NOBLEZZZ ADVICE (7) has been better at his past couple so if can push forward early can give some cheek. SOHO UNDERTAKER (3) was better last time and gets the draw to be on speed so is another to include along with debutante KOSTYUK LEIS (6) who did win a recent trial albiet in slow time. ALL ABOUT IVY (11) draws out back but if can follow the fancied runner into the race wouldn’t shock.

TOP PICK: Stranded Lollipop (12) give her one more chance.

DANGERS: Iden Oliver (1) is the danger along with Soho Undertaker (3).

ROUGHIE: Noblezzz Advice (7) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 12-1 3 7 11-2 4 5 6 8-9 10

SUGGESTED BET: Stranded Lollipop 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 12-1 3 7 11-1 3 7 11 $24 flexi 200%

LIKELY LEADER: Soho Undertaker and Iden Oliver will be looking to settle on speed.

RACE 6: 20:01pm Lees Orchard Stakes 1680m

This is for the 54-57 rated pacers over the sprint trip. FIVE STAR SHARK (1) grows a leg in front so look for to hold up and from there will take catching. SMOOTH DEAL (8) is bursting to breakthrough and will need a crack at them to take plenty of holding out. GYPSY AMOUR (4) didn’t have much luck last week so with clear running can bounce back. NO NUKES SKIPPER (2) and REMEMBER ME NOW (3) both have early speed so will look to push forward and if either got across the pole horse their chances are enhanced. CAPTAIN DAN (5) and EINSTEIN (9) are capable if the breaks come their so wouldn’t shock.

TOP PICK: Smooth Deal (8) happy to have an e/w play.

DANGERS: Five Star Shark (1) looks a danger along with Gypsy Amour (4).

ROUGHIE: Einstein (9) looks the improver at odds.

RATINGS: 8-1 4 5 9-2 3 7-6 10

SUGGESTED BET: Five Star Shark and Smooth Deal 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 8-1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9-1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 $42 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Five Star Shark will be looking to hold Remember Me Now early.

RACE 7: 20:30pm Ladbroke It! Stakes 2200m

This is a 58-63 rated affair and the Emma Stewart WATERFRONT (1) clearly brings the best form into the race and to top it off draws the pole so he should be getting the job done as did win here two runs back. NOVA BAXTER (2) was driven a treat last week by young Grace Jones so from the draw gets her chance to figure again. BELIEVE IN FOREVER (8) will push through and follow the fancied runner so gets every chance to fill a placing. MODERN POWER (3), STORMONT STAR (4) and MISTA EAGLE (7) are a trio to include for the wider exotic players

TOP PICK: Waterfront (1) is the one they have to beat.

DANGERS: Nova Baxter (2) looks a danger along with Believe in Forever (8)

ROUGHIE: Mista Eagle (7) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1-2 7 8-3 4-5 6 9

SUGGESTED BET: Waterfornt 6units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 7 8-2 7 8 $18 flexi 300%

LIKELY LEADER: Waterfront should hold them out.

RACE 8 21:00pm Ladbrokes Blackbook Stakes 2200m

Here we have the fast class race of the night. KEAYANG FITZY (8) has been a revelation in recent months for Wayne Yole so despite the back row he looks the hardest to beat. KIVIK (1) gets the draw to get his chance whether he leads or takes a sit so keep safe. ROYAL APPOINTMENT (5) got a perfect trip last week when getting back into the winners list so with a similar trip can win again. MAGNETIC TERROR (3) creates a bit of interest across from Victoria as ahs gate speed so watch for a market move. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE (6) and PARDOE PLUGGA (7) both have claims with a bit of luck from out wide.

TOP PICK: Keayang Fitzy (8) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Kivik (8) is the danger along with Royal Appointment (5).

ROUGHIE: Pardoe Plugga (7) looks the best at odds.

RATINGS: 8-1 3 5 6 7-2 4

SUGGESTED BET: Keayang Fitzy 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-1 3 5 6 7-1 3 5 6 7 $30 flexi 150%

LIKELY LEADER: Kivik and Magnetic Terror will battle for the early lead.

RACE 9 21:30pm Ladbrokes Racing Club Pace 2200m

The last of the night is for the 64-74 pacers LETSGOBRO (3) will look to spear across early and if gets across will take plenty of catching. MADDIS TIGER (1) is looking for four on the trot and draws so looks to get every chance. MAJOR DAVVIN (7) is racing well in stronger races so if he can slide forward from seven he will keep coming and can win. JEREMY WELLS (6) looks the value play especially if gets a cart into the race. ALWAYSBEALADY (2), RACKETEERS BOY (5) and COLBY SANZ (8) are a trio to include for the wider exotic players.

TOP PICK: Letsgobro (3) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Maddis Tiger (1) looks a danger along with Major Davvin (7).

ROUGHIE: Jeremy Wells (6) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 3-1 6 7-2 5 8-4 9

SUGGESTED BET: Letsgobro 2units win- Jeremy Wells 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 5 6 7 8-1 2 5 6 7 8 $30 flexi 100% - 6-1 2 3 5 7 8-1 2 3 5 7 8 $15 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Letsgobro looks the leader.