Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Hobart 22nd December
We head to Hobart for the last meeting before the big fella arrives next Wednesday so I would like to wish all the followers a safe and Merry Christmas so let’s find a few winners so we can buy some extra Pressies.
The two good bets of the afternoon ae Just Jaydo looks a bet race three along with Sherocks Sherolls in the last.
A few at value that I like are Nancestiger in race five and Custom Harley in race nine.
Photo First is the best play at odds in race four of the day.
RACE 1: 12:34pm Granada Tavern Pace 1609m
The first of the afternoon is for the 53-57 rated pacers. YARECKON IM SWEET (5) grows a leg in front and is suited by the short trip so will lead them a merry dance. MONEYS NO ISSUE (3) looks to find a winnable race as should be close to speed throughout so looks hard to beat. MODERN JIVE (1) will likely settle leaders back so gets every chance to fill a place. ALAPHILIPPE (2), SPOOKY GIRL (4) and GOBSMACKED (6) round out the field and are capable of running into a minor placing.
TOP PICK: Moneys No Issue (3) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Yareckon Im Sweet (5) is the danger along with Modern Jive (1).
ROUGHIE: Gobsmacked (6) can improve at odds.
RATINGS: 3-5-1 2 4 6
SUGGESTED BET: Moneys No Issue 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-5-field $12 flexi 300% - 3-field-5 $8 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Yareckon Im Sweet will look to zoom across early.
RACE 2: 13:00pm Red Coral Food Van Pace 2090m
Here we have a 58-63 and the resuming Emma Stewart trained SEA SILK (1) creates plenty of interest. She draws the pole so will be well supported and take plenty of beating. MAJOR LESTER (6) always seems to find one better and might do again but can win. NOVA BAXTER (2) gets a soft draw and should sit just behind the speed so can figure as can the likes of KENYA (3), PUNTARNO STRIDE (5) and FLEETWOOD ROCK (8) who gets a soft draw.
TOP PICK: Sea Silk (1) from the draw is the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Major Lester (6) is the danger along with Nova Baxter (2).
ROUGHIE: Fleetwood Rock (8) can place at odds.
RATINGS: 1-2 6-3 5 8-4 7
SUGGESTED BET: Major Lester 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 6-1 6-2 3 5 8 $20 flexi 250% -1 6-2 3 5 8-1 6 $16 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Sea Silk will be looking to hold them early.
RACE 3: 13:34pm Kayes Fencing Pace 1609m
This is for the maiden 2yo’s and the consistent UNMATCHED (8) looks well placed to breakthrough as has options early so will take plenty of holding out. BOLT OF COBARGO (1) draws the pole so will look to hold up early and will be in the finish as usual. MARTYR (6) comes across from Victoria and has raced in stronger company so wouldn’t surprise to see him measure up here. AUDACIOUS KID (2) did win a recent trial so should be better for that and from the draw can fill a placing as can FANCY ANOTHER (3) and UNOBETTER (5).
TOP PICK: Unmatched (8) happy to lean his way.
DANGERS: Martyr (6) is the danger along with Bolt of Cobargo (1).
ROUGHIE: Unobetter (5) has ability so can fill a placing.
RATINGS: 8-1 6-2 3 4 5 7
SUGGESTED BET: Unmatched 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-1 6-field $24 flexi 200% - 8-field-1 6 $18 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Bolt of Cobargo and Martyr will battle for the early lead.
RACE 4: 14:09pm Rick Martin Painting and Decorating Pace 2090m
This is for 3yo and older maiden pacers. SUNSHINE SAINT (4) had his chance last week but this looks easier so can go one better especially if finds the early lead. ROCK AMOUR (1) will appreciate this easier assignment and draws the pole so can improve at odds. PARTY BLAZE (12) is one from out back that has a sneaky chance if can get a cart into it. MILLYCENT (8) has been thereabouts and gets a soft draw so will be poking through late. PHOTO FIRST (2) showed good ability early at the trials so a break could see him capture that form and that be good enough to feature. B K WINDERMERE (3) OBLER (7) and MARV DREAMING (11) are a trio that are capable but are maidens fro a reason.
TOP PICK: Sunshine Saint (4) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Photo First (2) looks a danger along with Party Blaze (12).
ROUGHIE: Rock Amour (1) wouldn’t shock.
RATINGS: 4-1 2 3 8 12-7 11-6 9-5 10
SUGGESTED BET: Sunshine Saint 2units win- Photo First 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1 2 3 7 8 11 12-1 2 3 7 8 11 12 $21 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: Sunshine Saint will be looking to spear across early.
RACE 5: 14:44pm Whitney Family Pace 1609m
This is for the three year and older pacers. LETS GO LUCYLOU (4) has returned in good order and draws to advantage so should push forward and take plenty of beating. SWAITEK LEIS (10) will be looking to bounce back and her best is good enough so keep safe. NANCESTIGER (8) is a handy type who was better last week so with a bit of luck early will take holding out. WEONA EAGLE (2) is a handy type who will look to get to the pegs first and will give a sight. MAGIC PEBBLES (7) and HEATHBERN BRUCE (9) are a couple to include for the wider exotic players.
TOP PICK: Nancestiger (8) looks a good gamble.
DANGERS: Swaitek Leis (10) is the danger along with Lets Go Lucylou (4).
ROUGHIE: Weona Eagle (2) is the other winning chance.
RATINGS: 8-2 4 10-3 7 9-5 6-1
SUGGESTED BET: Nancestiger 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-2 4 10-2 4 10 $18 flexi 300%
LIKELY LEADER: Weona Eagle will be looking for the early lead.
RACE 6: 15:19pm Brett Carr Cartage Pace 2090m
This is for the up to 44 rated pacers. JUST JAYDO (2) was good at first local run in very quick time so from the good draw should settle on speed and take plenty of holding out. STRAWBERRY BLING (3) is racing well and draws to make her presence felt and can win. KENS CHIPS (7) got well overdue win last time but the wide draw hurts so a place looks best as it does for MORRIS BROWN (1), GROVE DALE (8), KIAVINO STRIDE (11) and DEADLY ASSASSIN (12) who are more than capable if bring their best.
TOP PICK: Just Jaydo (2) is the hardest to best.
DANGERS: Strawberry Bling (3) is the danger along with Kens Chips (7).
ROUGHIE: Morris Brown (1) has the draw to give some cheek.
RATINGS: 2-3 7 11-1 8 12-4 5 6 9 10
SUGGESTED BET: Just Jaydo 3units win
EXOTIC BET: 2-3 7 11-1 3 7 8 11 12 $30 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Just Jaydo will be looking for the early lead.
RACE 7: 15:54pm Claremont Football Club Pace 2090m
This is the open class race of the night. BEYOND DELIGHT (10) will relish getting back to mobile conditions and gets every chance to bounce back into the winners list. THE CROUPIER (4) has been good at all three runs so if can push forward early and get on speed gets his chance. JUST TIGER (2) will be looking to settle close enough and that will see him get his chance to figure late. COOL WATER PADDY (6) got the breaks and took advantage of it when scoring a good win but this is harder but include along with the likes STEPPING STONES (5), KEAYANG FITZY (7), WINDY HANOVER (9) and JIMMY THE IRISHMAN (12) are all capable of getting into some of the minor money for exotic players.
TOP PICK: Beyond Delight (10) is the one they have to beat.
DANGERS: The Croupier (4) is the danger along with Just Tiger (2).
ROUGHIE: Cool Water Paddy (6) wouldn’t shock after last week’s win.
RATINGS: 10-2 4-5 6 7 9 12-3 8-1 11
SUGGESTED BET: Beyond Delight 3units win- The Croupier 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4 10-4 10-2 5 6 7 9 12 $24 flexi 200% - 4 10-2 5 6 7 9 12-4 10 $18 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: The Croupier and Cool Water Paddy will look to push forward early.
RACE 8: 16:34pm Claremont Cricket Club Pace 2090m
This is for the 3yo and older pacers with the key chances drawing out back. FUN TO LOVE (12) will be looking to bounce back and this is much easier than her past couple so look for her to be getting home hard. MORE THAN THIS (11) will be looking to get an advantage early and if was able to get on speed early will be hard to get past. SERIOUSLY SAM (5), PEANUT SUTTER (6), FEELINKINDALUCKY (7), KEAYANG KEVIN (10) have been close up of late and are a must for the exotic players. HALIS BOY (3), HELLO SWEETHEART (4) are another two to include from the good draws.
TOP PICK: Fun To Love (12) stable is firing so she can continue that run.
DANGERS: More Than This (11) is the danger along with Seriously Sam (5).
ROUGHIE: Keayang Kevin (10) can place at odds
RATINGS: 12-11-5 6 7 10-3 4 8 9-1 2
SUGGESTED BET: Fun to Love 3units win
EXOTIC BET: 12-11-3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 $20 flexi 250% - 12-3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-11 $16 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Hello Sweetheart and Seriously Sam will look to push forward.
RACE 9: 17:13pm Ladbrokes Easy Form Pace 2090m
This is a competitive race for the 64-74 rated pacers. JAMES IN CHARGE (4) has been dominant in easier races but will find this tougher but still looks a major player. MAJOR CELEBRITY (2) can look to get to the pegs early then has options so has winning claims. CUSTOM HARLEY (8) is a quality 3yo who is up to winning this with a bit of luck early. LYNRYD SKYNRYD (3) will push forward and if happened to bully his way to the lead will give some cheek. MISTA EAGLE (9) is the value play and will be getting hard so include.
TOP PICK: Custom Harley (8) will be value and happy to have a small play.
DANGERS: James In Charge (4) is a danger along with Major Celebrity (2).
ROUGHIE: Mista Eagle (9) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 8-2 3 4 9-5 6-1 7
SUGGESTED BET: Custom Harley 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-2 3 4 9-2 3 4 9 $18 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Major Celebrity and Lynryd Skynryd will be pushing forward.
RACE 10: 17:49pm Ladbrokes Bet Ticker Pace 2090m
The last of the night is for the 45-52 pacers. SHEROCKS SHEROLLS (2) was very impressive last week leading throughout so will look to do similar again and a repeat effort will see her the one to beat. MISS COLLANN (3) has been racing well and will settle on speed so has to be included as does OUR BETTER BRO (4) who’s racing well. CINOCAL JAMANE (8) will get a soft trip along the pegs so can run into a placing at odds as can GEMAEDDE (1) who draws well
TOP PICK: Sherocks Sherolls (2) a repeat effort will see her winning.
DANGERS: Our Better Bro (4) is a danger along with Miss Collann (3).
ROUGHIE: Cinocal Jamane (8) is the best value.
RATINGS: 2-3 4-1 8-9 10-5 6 7
SUGGESTED BET: Sherocks Sherolls 5units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-3 4-1 3 4 8 $30 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: Sherocks Sherolls should work to the lead.
