Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Launceston 1st December
We are in for a great Sunday afternoon of racing where we see the final of the Tassie Golden Apple and the finals of the 3yos Sires Stakes finals so I encourage everyone to get their backside trackside if they are looking for something some competitive racing.
Smokescreen should get punters off to a good start by leading throughout in race one.
Swaitek Leis can continue her dominance against her age group and prove too strong in the Bandbox Final with same being said for Smooth Machete in the Globe Derby Final.
Glenledi Elvis looks a good e/w play in the Tassie Golden Apple especially if steps early.
Major Celebrity and Octagonise can send punters home on a happy note by winning the last two respectively.
RACE 1: 12:59pm 6TY Youngbloods Heat One 1680m
The first of a huge day is the first heat of the Youngbloods Series and its for the up to 49 rated pacers. SWEET AMOUR (9) comes off a dominant win last time and has again found a winnable race as should push through early and then look to get up on speed so will take holding out. QUEENOFDANCE (10) is racing in fine form and will look to follow the above everywhere so gets every chance to figure. SMOKESCREEN (1) has been run down at his past two in quick time so if gets an even first half of the race can go one better. DANGER PLAY (2), FLO JO CARVALHO (4), DONE WELL (5) and HORRIE OTARA (8) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Smokescreen (1) is the one to beat from the draw.
DANGERS: Sweet Amour (9) is the danger along with Queenofdance (10).
ROUGHIE: Danger Play (2) is the query at first local run.
RATINGS: 1-2 9 10-4 5 8-3 6-11
SUGGESTED BET: Smokescreen 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 9 10-2 4 5 8 9 10 $22.50 flexi 150% - 1-2 4 5 8 9 10-2 9 10 $15 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Smokescreen should be holding the lead.
RACE 2: 13:34pm Brian “Davo” Davidson Memorial 1680m
This is for the 70-79 rated pacers and it looks a good race for INDELIBLE (1) to get back into the winners list as should do enough to hold them and from there will take plenty of catching over the short trip. ARDEN ROANOKE (8) maps to be the value runner and only needs a gap late to figure. LETSGOBRO (4) will have a crack at crossing as he races best in front so will pay to keep safe. RACKETEERS BOY (5) was impressive last week when the race was run to suit so if can repeat that effort looks the value play along with JO AN JO (6) who is open to improvement. ANDAMAN BAY (2) is fitter and looks the blowout hope from the draw.
TOP PICK: Indelible (1) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Arden Roanoke (8) is the danger along with Letsgobro (4).
ROUGHIE: Andaman Bay (2) wouldn’t shock at odds.
RATINGS: 1-4 5 6 8-2 3 7 9 10
SUGGESTED BET: Indelible 3units win- Arden Roanoke 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 8-1 8-field $24 flexi 150% - 1 8-field-1 8 $20 flexi 125%
LIKELY LEADER: Indelible will be looking to hold Letsgobro early.
RACE 3: 14:09pm Ladbrokes Golden Slipper 1680m
This is the last of the 2yo features for the season and it brings together a handy field. SMILING MIA (7) broke through for a well deserved win last week and despite drawing the widest looks one of the major players. UNMATCHED (2) is a maiden but from the draw looks to get every chance to break through especially if can settle handy early. VINNI THE GANGSTER (9) was super impressive on debut beating numerous of his rivals here so with natural improvement he will take plenty of holding out. OURTIGER (4) is an improving type and only needs the breaks to come at the right time to figure. MANINKY MOONSHINE (10) and GRIMSHAW BAY (11) are a couple out the back racing well so id can be close enough will get there chances late.
TOP PICK: Vinni the Gangster (9) only has to run up to his latest effort to be the one to beat.
DANGERS: Unmatched (2) looks the danger along with Smiling Mia (7).
ROUGHIE: Ourtiger (4) is the value play.
RATINGS: 9-2 4 7 10 11-3 5 6 8
SUGGESTED BET: Vinni the Gangster 2units win- Unmatched 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2 9-2 4 7 9 10 11-2 4 7 9 10 11 $30 flexi 75%
LIKELY LEADER: Our Willow and Smiling Mia will look to push forward from out wide.
RACE 4: 14:44pm 6TY Youngbloods Heat Two 2200m
This is for the 50-54 rated pacers ad there is no reason why WATCH IT HAPPEN (3) cannot go back to back. He should settle just behind them and look to out battle his rivals late. JUSTIFY (1) his best brings him right into calculations especially if can hold up early as he is a hard horse to get past. LAID BACK (6) nothing went right last time so if can get some cover into the race he gets his chance late. GYPSY AMOUR (2), SPACEWRITER (4), BEAST MODE (8) and CHEETAH LODGE (9) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Watch it Happen (3) is the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Justify (1) is the danger along with Laid Back (6).
ROUGHIE: Spacewriter (4) is the value play
RATINGS: 3-1-2 4 6 8 9-5 7 10
SUGGESTED BET: Watch it Happen 3units win- Justify 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 3-1 3-2 4 6 8 9 $25 flexi 250% - 1 3-2 4 6 8 9-1 3 $20 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Justify will be looking to hold Gypsy Amour early.
RACE 5: 15:21pm 6TY Bandbox 2200m
This is the final of the 3yo Fillies Sires Stakes and it brings together a very good field. SWAITEK LEIS (5) has been the standout of this age group and that was evident with an arrogant Prelude win and should be fitter so is clearly the one to beat. MISS DUTTON (4) was very good in the above race so with the right trip has a chance to turn the tables and looks the danger. SHES A TINY DANCER (3) has early speed so if crosses will look to take a sit behind one of the above and look to out dash them late. TAMBROS TILLY (1) is the one at odds who can be dangerous if the pressure goes on early. WEONA EAGLE (6), PETALI BEACH (7) and MOVESLIKEALADY (9) are a quartet to include for the minor first four placing.
TOP PICK: Swaitek Leis (5) is the top pick.
DANGERS: Miss Dutton (4) is the danger along with Shes a Tiny Dancer (3).
ROUGHIE: Tambros Tilly (1) sneaky chance at odds.
RATINGS: 5-3 4-1 6 7 8 9-2
SUGGESTED BET: Swaitek Leis 4units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-3 4-1 3 4 6 7 9 $25 flexi 250% - 5-1 3 4 6 7 9-3 4 $20 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Tambros Tilly and Shes a Tiny Dancer will look for the early lead but then likely to take cover from one of the more fancied runners.
RACE 6: 15:59pm Nutrien AG Solutions Tassie Golden Apple 2200m
This is another of the big features and it’s a very open race. BEYOND DELIGHT (12) was impressive winning his heat and will be fitter for the win but its not easy off 30m over the shorter trip so as long as his close he has the speed to run down his rivals. GLENLEDI ELVIS (5) will be looking to step early as if he can bully his way to the top he has the ability to lead them all the way. BLITZERN (13) is a classy customer who will be better for his first up run so look for to be finishing the race off late. JAMES IN CHARGE (1) was ok in his heat so from the pole will need to step and if camps just behind them can figure late. THE CROUPIER (10) was the eye catcher in his heat and will be better for the run so if can settle close enough he can go close. JUST TIGER (4), PARDOE PLUGGA (7), STEPPING STONES (8) and MAGNETIC TERROR (9) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Glenledi Elvis (5) leaning his off the front mark.
DANGERS: Beyond Delight (12) is the big danger along with The Croupier (10).
ROUGHIE: Just Tiger (4) is a sneaky chance of they go hard.
RATINGS: 5 12-1 4 9 10 13-7 8-6 11
SUGGESTED BET: Glenledi Elvis and Beyond Delight 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5 12-5 12-1 4 7 8 9 10 13 $28 flexi 200% - 5 12-1 4 7 8 9 10 13-5 12 $21 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Glenledi Elvis and Pardoe Plugga will be looking to ping across early.
RACE 7: 16:39pm Nutrien AG Solutions Globe Derby 2200m
Here is the last of the features the final of Sires Stakes for the 3yo boys and the way the marbles have fallen its hard to see how they best SMOOTH MACHETE (1). He has had a long season but continues to race at his best and from the pole he will lead and dictate and whatever beats him will be winning. The most likely looks CUSTOM HARLEY (5) who showed a welcome return to for last time and at his best his not far behind the above so will push forward and keep him honest. VINCENZO (4) and STRANDED LOLLIPOP (9) are racing well but will need something special of they are going to upset the top two but are mast for trifecta players. CUZZY BRO (3) was driven upside down last week when dropped out so with a sit here he has the ability to run into a placing at odds. MIKI SANZ (2) looks a minor first four player at best.
TOP PICK: Smooth Machete (1) looks too classy for his rivals.
DANGERS: Custom Harley (5) is the danger along with Vincenzo (4).
ROUGHIE: Cuzzy Bro (3) if they run along can give some cheek.
RATINGS: 1-5-3 4 9-2-6 7 8
SUGGESTED BET: Smooth Machete 8units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-5-3 4 9 $15 flexi 500% - 1-3 4 9-5 $15 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: Smooth Machete should hold early.
RACE 8: 17:15pm Lees Orchard Golden Girls 2200m
This is a race for the 4yo and older mares and brings together a handy line up. IDEN LADY LINCOLN (6) put in a career best performance last time when bullied her rivals into the ground so if outs a repeat performance is the one to beat. FUN TO LOVE (1) was short odds in that race and had every chance so might look to take a sit of get eye balled again and use her speed late. SPOT RULER (4) will be better for last week and where she settles early is a key to her winning chances but has the ability. IYLAC PAKARIA (2) is racing below her best but with a soft trip gets her chance to improve. JILLIBY MENDOZA (8) is another racing at the peak of her powers so look for her to be getting home late.
TOP PICK: Iden Lady Lincoln (6) is the one to beat on her latest win.
DANGERS: Spot Ruler (4) is a danger along with Fun to Love (1).
ROUGHIE: Jilliby Mendoza (8) will get lout to good odds and wouldn’t shock.
RATINGS: 6-1 2 4 8-3 5 7
SUGGESTED BET: Iden Lady Lincoln 3units win- Jilliby Mendoza 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-1 2 4 8-1 2 4 8 $18 flexi 150% - 8-1 2 4 6-1 2 4 6 $12 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Spot Ruler and Iden Lady Lincoln will be looking to get up outside Fun to Love early.
RACE 9: 17:44pm 6TY Youngbloods Heat Three 2200m
This is for the 60-69 rated pacers. MAJOR CELEBRITY (5) hit the lead to early last time and will be fitter so gets every chance to make amends in this line up. MAJOR LESTER (11) is flying but get a draw so will need the breaks to come his way and if his close enough he will finish hard. MAGIC JOE (4) will settle handy from the draw and that gives him a sneaky chance so include along with FLEETWOOD ROCK (9) and MISTER FINNIGAN (10) who should get good runs into the race. SWIMINTHERIVER (1) has the pole so if takes a sit early can fill a minor placing.
TOP PICK: Major Celebrity (5) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Magic Joe (4) is the danger along with Major Lester (11).
ROUGHIE: Fleetwood Rock (9) is the value play.
RATINGS: 5-4 11-9 10-1 2 3 6 7
SUGGESTED BET: Major Celebrity 3units win- Major Lester 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5 11-5 11-4 9 10 $18 flexi 300% - 5 11-4 9 10-5 11 $12 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Major Celebrity will look to bully his way forward.
RACE 10: 18:20pm 6TY Youngbloods Heat Four 2200m
The fourth and last heat of the Youngbloods Series rounds out a great afternoon of racing and its for the 55-59 pacers. OCTAGONISE (8) looks well placed being the lone runner off the second line as should push through and be close enough to be too strong for his rivals late. SHARMEY (6) will be making a be line for the lead and from there will give his rivals something to catch. SVITOLINA LEIS (1), KENYA (3), YAPPAS COURAGE (4) and NO NUKES SKIPPER (7) are a quartet to include for the minor exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Octagonise (8) just leaning his way.
DANGERS: Sharmey (6) is the danger along with Svitolina Leis (1).
ROUGHIE: Yappas Courage (4) can improve at odds.
RATINGS: 8-6-1 2 3 4 7-2 5
SUGGESTED BET: Octagonise 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-6-field $18 flexi 300% - 8-field-6 $12 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Sharmey will be looking to cross early.
