Melton, Friday 22 November

Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: MONSIEUR FLAMEL (5) will appreciate a drop back in class on his recent performances and he has the early speed to be prominent throughout. He attempted unsuccessfully to find the lead early and eventually gained cover when a creditable fourth at Kilmore last outing. BRONSKI ROYAL (9) hasn’t won a race since May 2022 but he has dropped back into a workable grade and he ran a game second behind Anakin at Kilmore at his latest attempt. DEUCE COUPE (10) possesses a powerful finishing burst and did well in a slick final quarter of 27.3 seconds to pick up second at Melton last outing. He places more often than he wins but he should be hitting the line strongly again. BLACK TUXEDO (1) and FRANCESCO (4) are both capable of showing up without surprising.

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 1,4

SELECTIONS: MONSIEUR FLAMEL (5), BRONSKI ROYAL (9), DEUCE COUPE (10), BLACK TUXEDO (1)

RATINGS: 5/ 9,10/ 1,4/ 11

SUGGESTED BET: MONSIEUR FLAMEL (5) to win

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: JUDES DUDE (9) attempted to lead throughout when a close second behind Hammer Dan at Cranbourne on Sunday. He will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and looms as one of the leading chances again. LEAVE YOUR HAT ON (6) will also be suited with a drop back in grade and is capable of improving on her recent performances. She finished a close second in a mile rate of 1.57.5 at Warragul on October 28. HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (7) blitzed his rivals in a big victory on debut at Swan Hill. This is a much harder race and he did race very greenly first up but he should have benefited by the experience. CALYPSO MISTRESS (1) and SKY CITY (8) are both racing well enough to be considered as winning hopes in an open betting event.

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 2,3,4,7

SELECTIONS: JUDES DUDE (9), LEAVE YOUR HAT ON (6), HIGHLANDHARTBREAKA (7), SKY CITY (8)

RATINGS: 9/ 6,7/ 1,8/ 2,3

SUGGESTED BET: JUDES DUDE (9) each way

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: VEE EM GEE MACRAY (5) is a very honest mare that went to the line jogging with no clear run when an unlucky seventh at Melton then followed with a third in fast time at Geelong last week. This is a suitable assignment and she is worth an investment. HES CHARLIES ANGEL (6) finished ninth at Melton last outing but it wasn’t a bad performance. He was last on the home turn, had to switch course in the straight and was making ground over the latter stages so he cannot be underestimated. JUSTALITTLESIP (7) appreciated a drop back in class when he worked to the front and finished third at Geelong last outing. He is poorly drawn but he possesses early speed and should give another forward showing. RADIUS (1), ARGGGHHH (8) and CAPTAIN PINS (9) are all capable of winning if they receive the right luck in running.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 2,3,7

SELECTIONS: VEE EM GEE MACRAY (5), HES CHARLIES ANGEL (6), JUSTALITTLESIP (7), RADIUS (1)

RATINGS: 5/ 6,7/ 1,8/ 9

SUGGESTED BET: VEE EM GEE MACRAY (5) to win

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: NAKULA (3) was resuming since July when she led throughout in a mile rate of 1.57.2 at Kilmore last week. She is a good chance of finding the lead again and she should be fitter so she is worth an investment. MAAS BETTING AGAIN (2) found the front and battled on well for second behind Quaddie VC in a mile rate of 1.55.7 at Yarra Valley last outing. She is drawn to gain a prominent position again and is worth a ticket each way. INDIGO DANCER (7) has returned from a long spell in dynamic form having won at her two attempts in mile rate rates of 1.56.1 and 1.55.1. She possesses a powerful finishing burst and is worth thought again. KATHYS FREE (6) is racing consistently and has claims along with MOST TRIUMPHANT (8) and SNOW HUNTER (9).

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,4

SELECTIONS: NAKULA (3), MAAS BETTING AGAIN (2), INDIGO DANCER (7), MOST TRIUMPHANT (8)

RATINGS: 3/ 2,7/ 6,8/ 9

SUGGESTED BET: NAKULA (3) to win

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: SAYDIE (9) is a talented filly and is clearly the horse to beat if she can get away cleanly but she does have a history of bungling the start. She did miss away badly last time out but was a big winner at Bendigo prior. CHRISTMAS BABE (2) is completely the opposite and will use her early brilliance to fire to the lead shortly after the start. She led throughout at Maryborough three starts ago and was run down in the latter stages at her latest second so she should give a bold showing again. RIGHT OF REPLY (5) has struck peak form having won two of his past three starts. He pushed forward to find the lead and won comfortably at Cranbourne last outing so he is worth thought again. KYVALLEY PAINT (3) and CAPTAIN GRAYWOOD (6) both made errors last outing but their overall form is sound so they are worth another chance.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 4,5,7

SELECTIONS: SAYDIE (9), CHRISTMAS BABE (2), RIGHT OF REPLY (5), KYVALLEY PAINT (3)

RATINGS: 9/ 2,3,5/ 6/ 7/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: SAYDIE (9) to win

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: CAPTAIN MAASTRICHT (8) has been racing in outstanding form and blitzed his rivals by over twenty metres in a mile rate of 1.54.5 last outing so he should prove hard to beat again. TWISTING BY (2) finished off fast to win the Super Series Silver event two starts ago then had no clear run and went to the line with plenty in reserve at his latest unlucky sixth. He is nicely drawn and looms as one of the leading chances. STARZZZ DESTINY (5) was doing his best work late when second behind CAPTAIN MAASTRICHT (8) two starts ago then finished fourth in a strong field at his latest attempt. He is racing well and should go well again. PABLO ROCKS (4) trailed the leader and used the sprint lane when he scored at Melton three starts ago and he battled on strongly for third at Kilmore last time out. This race is no harder and he should be competitive again.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,6

SELECTIONS: CAPTAIN MAASTRICHT (8), TWISTING BY (2), STARZZZ DESTINY (5), PABLO ROCKS (4)

RATINGS: 8/ 2/ 4,5/ 3,6

SUGGESTED BET: CAPTAIN MAASTRICHT (8) to win

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: ROYAL CHARLOTTE (6) is yet to score in 23 starts for the season but she possesses early speed and appears to be extremely well graded in this event so she gets her chance to break through for a win. IMPERIAL COMMAND (1) is a former New Zealand trotter that joins trainer Andy Gath. He is a 3yo and has had 48 starts so he has had a lot of racing but he does race best when he is close to the speed. He finished a close up second at a Melton trial effort two starts ago. MISS FRANCENE (8) is a speedy mare and is racing in peak form. She pushed forward to find the lead shortly after the start and scored comfortably at her latest performance. HIGHPOINT (5) and IMPERIAL WHIZ (7) both have winning claims in an open race.

 

EARLY SPEED: 6 (possible leader), 1,7

SELECTIONS: ROYAL CHARLOTTE (6), IMPERIAL COMMAND (1), MISS FRANCENE (8), HIGHPOINT (5)

RATINGS: 1,6/ 8/ 5,7/ 4/ 3

SUGGESTED BET: ROYAL CHARLOTTE (6) each way

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: NO TELLING HEATHER (9) has been racing against elite opposition with her past three efforts being in the Victoria Oaks, the Gold Bracelet and in the Breeders Crown. She galloped away in the Breeders Crown Final last week but will take beating if she delivers a fool proof display against this opposition. PROHIBITED BID (8) remains an Australian maiden but she has been placed in four of her past five starts and worked home well for second behind Destrier last outing so she warrants respect. DISTANT SUN (7) finished unplaced in the Breeders Crown Final won by Valtino at Melton last outing. He will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and has the speed to figure in the finish. AMOUR MATERNAL (6) hasn’t raced since February 2022 but she was racing against strong opposition when she was last in work and she has been placed in two recent trial performances so she must be kept safe.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 2,7

SELECTIONS: NO TELLING HEATHER (9), PROHIBITED BID (8), DISTANT SUN (7), AMOUR MATERNAL (6)

RATINGS: 9/ 7,8/ 6/ 4/ 2

SUGGESTED BET: NO TELLING HEATHER (9) each way

 

Race 9:

 

OVERVIEW: KEAYANG HOLLYWOOD (3) is a colt by Art Major for trainer Margaret Lee and he has won at his past two Terang trial appearances, the latest where he recorded a slick last half of 57.2 seconds so he is worth following. SOHO HUDSON (1) is a colt by Bettors Delight for trainer Michael Stanley, which has also shaped up nicely at his recent trial performances and warrants respect. CAPTAIN GROOVE (4) led out then took cover and posted a slick mile rate of 1.55.5 when he scored at Yarra Valey last outing. He is meeting a field of similar standard here and is worth thought again. THE POSTMASTER (2) ran a sharper race for third last time out and has claims along with THE VILLAIN (5) and G B BRAVE (6), which both contested heats of the Breeders Crown at their latest attempts. 

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,4

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG HOLLYWOOD (3), SOHO HUDSON (1), CAPTAIN GROOVE (4), THE POSTMASTER (2)

RATINGS: 3/ 1,4/ 2,5,6/ 7

SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG HOLLYWOOD (3) each way