Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Hobart 2nd November
We head to Hobart on Saturday night for a huge feature night of racing with highlights being the Two Year Sires Stakes Finals along with the Tasmanian Derby and Oaks for the three year olds.
The Oaks we see Waterfront who will be winning at very short odds for the Emma Stewart stable who will also have the dominant favourite in the Derby being Kingman who will appreciate this much easier assignment.
The plays for the night start in the Dandy Patch final being Okanui Beach who has the draw and should be winning.
Miss Papenhuyzen resumes and looks well placed off the front so looks a good bet.
The value bet of the night is Royal Appointment in race eight at around the $5-6 mark.
Crack the Vault maps perfectly in the last and gets every chance.
RACE 1: 18:02pm Ladbrokes Own Spring Pace 1609m
The first of a huge night is for the maiden performers and it’s a tough one. OBLER (4) has had two runs back so there will be no excuses and has the draw to be on speed. MAJOR IDEAL (8) has been consistent of late and has drawn to get a soft trip so with a crack at them can figure as can the likes of PARTY BLAZE (2), KEAYANG WOLFPACK (3) and JILLIBY SORRENTO (7) who look to get their chances to improve. ILLTELLYOUSOMETHING (9) has been midfield of late and this is easier so is one at odds to include along with PISTOL QUEEN (6) who is open to improvement. MILLYCENT (1) is on debut who has plenty of trials so should be ready to run a race.
TOP PICK: Obler (4) will not get a better chance to breakthrough.
DANGERS: Major Ideal (8) is the danger along with Keayang Wolfpack (3).
ROUGHIE: Illtellyousomething (9) wouldn’t shock.
RATINGS: 4-2 3 6 7 8 9-1-5
SUGGESTED BET: Obler 2units win- Illtellyousomething 1unit win-2units place.
EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 2 3 4 7 8 9 $40 flexi 33.3%- 4-2 3 7 8 9-2 3 7 8 9 $10 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: Party Blaze and Keayang Wolfpack will be looking to settle on speed.
RACE 2: 18:30pm Fehlbergs Produce Sprintlane Pace 2090m
This is for the 50-52 performers and is another competitive affair. NO NUKES SKIPPER (1) finds the perfect draw that gives him options so either looks a major player. WATCH IT HAPPEN (8) will like to follow through behind the above and that’s give him a good hope. PARK LANE (2) comes across from Victoria with a good draw so looks to get every chance. ROCK THE TABLEAU (3), BET SHEZA LADY (5) and GRINNING AGAIN (6) are a trio that are capable with the right trip in transit.
TOP PICK: No Nukes Skipper (1) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Watch it Happen (8) is the danger along with Park Lane (2).
ROUGHIE: Rock the Tableau (3) is the value play.
RATINGS: 1-2 5 6 8-3 7-4
SUGGESTED BET: No Nukes Skipper 2units win- Rock the Tableau 1unit e/w
EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 1 2 3 5 6 8 $40 flexi 33.3% - 1-2 3 5 6 8-2 3 5 6 8 $10 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: No Nukes Skipper should hold up.
RACE 3: 18:57pm Cavalor Equicare Tasmanian Oaks 2090m
This is the first of the features the Tasmanian Oaks and we will see the shortest priced favourite of the night in WATERFRONT (1) looking to make it nine in a row since crossing the Tasman and driver Tiarna Ford has built a great on her and it will be a huge thrill for her if she wins. She has been dominant beating the older horses of late and she will demolish field by leading throughout. Local TAMBROS TILLY (2) will drop straight on her back so can run the exacta placing. Stablemates FREEASABYRD (4) and FREE TO PLAY (5) are not in the same class as the favourite but are capable of filling the placings and could give Emma Stewart another top three in an Oaks. SHES A TINY DANCER (3) rounds out the field and can sprint quickly for 300m so if saved for the last crack could run into the exacta placing.
TOP PICK: Waterfront (1) just wins.
DANGERS: Tambros Tilly (2) can add some value along with Shes a Tiny Dancer (3).
ROUGHIE: Free to Play (5) is the value play.
RATINGS: 1-2 3-4 5
SUGGESTED BET: Waterfront 10units win-Tambros Tilly 2units place.
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 3-2 3 $30 flexi 1500% - First four 1-2 3-2 3-4 5 $20 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: Waterfront will be leading early.
RACE 4: 19:22pm Prydes Easifeed Evicus Final 1609m
This is 2yo Fillies Sire Stakes Final over the sprint trip. SMOOTH REASON (7) has been racing well and was brave in her heat and despite drawing wide she gets an advantage over her main rivals so look for her to push forward and find the lead. THE BRIDE (10) was beaten fair and square in her heat but she first up so will be fitter but will have to be if she is going to get over the top of the above late. BARBARY TALES (9) beat the above two in the heat when having the last crack so can’t be dismissed. ITSMENOTU (8) was a strong heat winner and gets a soft trip so can fill a placing. SMILING MIA (3) was good on debut and will be better so if can get to the pegs early can give some cheek. OUR WILLOW (1), OHANA BY THE SEA (4), TULLAH GIRL (6) and BRIDWOOD SUE (11) are a quartet to include for the minor placings.
TOP PICK: Smooth Reason (7) just leaning her way.
DANGERS: The Bride (10) is the danger along with Barbary Tales (9).
ROUGHIE: Smiling Mia (3) looks the best at odds.
RATINGS: 7-10-3 4 6 8-1 11- 2 5
SUGGESTED BET: Smooth Reason 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 7 10-7 10-1 3 4 6 8 11 $24 flexi 200% - 7 10-1 3 4 6 8 11-7 10 $18 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Smooth Reason will be looking to bully her way across early.
RACE 5: 20:00pm Prydes Easifeed Dandy Patch Final 2090m
This is the 2yo Sire Stakes and this looks another competitive affair. OKANUI BEACH (1) was unlucky in his heat then brokethrough last week doing it easy and comes up with the pole so look him to kick through early and take plenty of catching. STONE WRITER (10) is a major player despite the draw as will be out into the race and his best is good enough. ZEUS IMMORTAL (11) has been very impressive at his past two wins from similar draws so he will be dangerous if close enough. OURTIGER (7) is improving type and despite drawing has sneaky chance if they go hard so include for the exotics along with MEL RUSTY KITA (2), POST LAZARUS (3), HES FIRST CLASS (4) and JUSTLIKEDAVE (5) who creates some interest coming across from Victoria.
TOP PICK: Okanui Beach (1) from the draw is the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Stone Writer (10) is the danger along with Zeus Immortal (11).
ROUGHIE: Ourtiger (7) is the value play
RATINGS: 1-10-11-2 3 4 5 7-6 9-8
SUGGESTED BET: Okanui Beach 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-10 11-2 3 4 5 7 10 11 $24 flexi 200% - 1-2 3 4 5 7 10 11-10 11 $18 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Okanui Beach will be looking to hold Post Lazarus early.
RACE 6: 20:40pm Cavalor Equicare Tasmanian Derby 2579m
This is final of the features the Tasmanian Derby and we see KINGMAN (5) making his way across the Bass Strait and will find this a lot easier than recent runs. His not the easiest to drive as can get keen so look for him to push forward and find the lead and should be too classy. OUR LUCIANO (4) also comes across from Victoria and if they do run along he will finish the race off well. SMOOTH MACHETE (6) is the best of the locals and he can do it do work in his run so look for him to be put into the race at some stage and make it a staying test. COLLECTIVE WORKS (7) has been racing well but the draw hurts sp a minor placing looks best. BETTABLACK TIGER (1) and VINCENZO (3) are both handy types who draw well so look for them to be running into a top four placing.
TOP PICK: Kingman (5) looks a class above if brings his best.
DANGERS: Smooth Machete (6) looks the danger along with Our Luciano (4).
ROUGHIE: Vincenzo (3) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 5-4 6-1 3 7-2 8
SUGGESTED BET: Kingman 8units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-4-1 3 6 $24 flexi 800%- 5-1 3 6-4 $15 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: Kingman will bully his way across early.
RACE 7: 21:09pm Tasmanian Horse Transport Pace 2090m
This is a stand start discretionary for the open class pacers where the resuming MISS PAPENHUYZEN (4) looks well placed off the front as long as she steps early as she has good form around Magician before her break so looks the hardest to beat. KEAYANG FITZY (8) has had an amazing six months winning 10 races since coming to Tassie but will need to step from the 20m with the same being said for COOL WATER PADDY (9) who continues to hold his form. STEPPING STONES (1) will be looking to hold them out early and if does will give them plenty to chase. MAGENTIC TERROR (7) has been close up amongst most of his rivals of late so has to be kept safe. MESSERATI (3) was better last so looks the best at odds.
TOP PICK: Miss Papenhuyzen (4) is the one they have to beat.
DANGERS: Stepping Stones (1) is the big danger along with Keayang Fitzy (8).
ROUGHIE: Messerati (3) can spice up the exotics.
RATINGS: 4-1 7 8 9-2 3 6-5
SUGGESTED BET: Miss Papenhuyzen 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1 7 8 9-1 3 7 8 9 $32 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Messerati and Stepping Stones look the likely two settle up front.
RACE 8 21:44pm The Dynamo 15th November Pace 2090m
This is for the 64-79 pacers and it’s a good race. HOW SWEET (1) bounced back with a strong last week and comes up with the pole so despite rising in class looks hard to beat. BINALONG CREEK (3) was dominant winning last time leading throughout so look for him to push forward and if happened to bully his way across as his chances are enhanced. ROYAL APPOINTMENT (7) is well up to taking this out with a bit of luck from the wide draw. MISTA EAGLE (5) and WE SALUTE YOU (6) are both opportunists who will be dangerous if they run along up front. ALWAYSBEALADY (2) has a soft draw so a minor placing is possible.
TOP PICK: Royal Appointment (7) looks a good e/w play.
DANGERS: Binalong Creek (3) is a danger along with How Sweet (1).
ROUGHIE: We Salute You (6) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 7-1 3-2 5 6-4-9 10
SUGGESTED BET: Royal Appointment 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 7-1 3-1 2 3 5 6 $12 flexi 150% - 7-1 2 3 5 6-1 3 $8 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Binalong Creek will look to work across How Sweet early.
RACE 9 22:18pm Racing Connect Pace 2090m
This is for the 53-57 pacers and YARECKON IM SWEET (1) come sup with the pole so gets her chance to bounce back as races best from the front of the field. JUST FOLLOW ME (2) will lob straight behind the leader so gets every chance so is a player. WILD RUMMY (5) was well backed when resuming and was ok so should be fitter and can figure. GOBSMACKED (6) is racing well and he will be the one finishing strongly and can win. CAPTAIN DAN (3) and SWIMINTHERIVER (7) can run into a minor placing for exotic players.
TOP PICK: Yareckon Im Sweet (1) just leaning her way.
DANGERS: Just Follow Me (1) is the danger along with Gobsmacked (6).
ROUGHIE: Captain Dan (3) can place at odds.
RATINGS: 1-2 5 6-3 4 7
SUGGESTED BET: Yareckon Im Sweet 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 5 6-2 3 5 6 7 $$24 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Yareckon Im Sweet should be holding the lead.
RACE 10 22:45pm More Confidence Consulting Pace 1609m
The last of the night is for the 58-63 pacers over the short trip. CRACK THE VAULT (1) looks well suited from the draw as should get leaders back so get his chance up the sprint lane. SETTEBELLO (2) was dominant last week in easier company when leading so will lead them a merry dance again. ARDEN ROANOKE (6) is getting close to another win and despite drawing wide has to be included. BETTER EXCLUSIVE (5) will be better for last week’s effort and the small field suits so will be in the finish.
TOP PICK: Crack The Vault (1) just leaning his way.
DANGERS: Settebello (2) is the danger along with Better Exclusive (5).
ROUGHIE: Arden Roanoke (6) is next best.
RATINGS: 1-2 5 6-3 4
SUGGESTED BET: Crack the Vault 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-2 5 6-2 5 6 $18 flexi 300%
LIKELY LEADER: Settobello should hold Better Exclusive and Arden Roanoke early.
