Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

Burnie 11th October

We head up to Burnie for a seven event card on Friday night so let’s see if we can find a few winners although there are no standouts.

Memphis looks well placed in race one so is worth a play.

Lalibela looks an e/w paly in race two.

Colby Sanz drops along way in class and is a gamble in race six.

The best at odds for the night comes up in the last being Velocity Stride.

RACE 1: 17:44pm Willrev Syndicate Pace 2180m

The first of the night is for the 3yo and older under mobile conditions. SWEET AS LOU (1) resumes from the pole which is a huge advantage here so if holds them out gets every chance but the market is a huge watch as stablemate DONE WELL (2) draws to her outside and is racing well enough to take this out. MEMPHIS (3) probably brings the best form into the race so is sure to take holding out. ARTS CLASSIC (6) gets the draw to follow so is open to improvement. FORSAKEN ME (4) and ONLINE MODEL (5) both draw a touch wide but have the ability to figure.

TOP PICK: Memphis (3) can prove too strong at the business end.

DANGERS: Sweet As Lou (1) draws to be a danger along with Done Well (2).

ROUGHIE: Forsaken Me (4) is next best.

RATINGS: 3-1 2 4-5 6

SUGGESTED BET: Memphis 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 4-1 2 4 $15 flexi 250%

LIKELY LEADER: Sweet As Lou will be looking to hold them early.

RACE 2: 18:18pm Harvey Norman Electrical Burnie Pace 2180m

This is another under mobile conditions for the 45-54 pacers. LALIBELA (6) is racing well and should push through and follow the leader and if the gap comes can win. SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (5) deserved his win last time but drawing wide will need to push forward early and be on speed and can go back to back. SCRUB BASHER (1) gets his chance to get back into the winners list as should lead and will look to stack them out and out sprint them late. SWEET AMOUR (4), SPACEWRITER (7) and ROCKS ROY (8) are a trio that can run into a minor placing.

TOP PICK: Lalibela (6) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Scrub Basher (1) is the danger along with Sapphire Gambler (5).

ROUGHIE: Spacewriter (7) can spice up the exotics.

RATINGS: 6-1 5-4 7 8-2 3

SUGGESTED BET: Lalibela 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-1 5-1 4 5 7 8 $16 flexi 200% - 6-1 4 5 7 8-1 5 $12 flexi 150%

LIKELY LEADER: Scrub Basher will be looking to hold them early.

RACE 3: 18:47pm Wynyard Veterinary Clinic Pace 2180m

This is the first from behind the tapes. WHATTA GOOD REASON (2) usually steps well and if finds the front will take plenty of catching and will be fitter for his first up run. QUEENOFDANCE (3) is open to improvement as draws the front so only needs to step early to be a player. TAXI METER (6) is the query as his best is good enough to take this out so keep safe. LOU LOUS ALLGOLD (5), ROCK ON PLAYBOY (7) and ONEOFTHELADS (8) are a trio that wouldn’t shock if the breaks come their way.

TOP PICK: Whatta Good Reason (2) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Taxi Meter (6) looks a danger along with Queenofdance (3).

ROUGHIE: Oneofthelads (8) can improve at odds in this line up.

RATINGS: 2-3 5 6 7 8-1 4

SUGGESTED BET: Whatta Good Reason 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-3 5 6 7 8-3 5 6 7 8 $20 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Whatta Good Reason will be looking to ping early.

RACE 4: 19:14pm Ladbrokes Racing Club Pace 2180m

We go back to mobile conditions for this no more than one lifetime win where we see a trio of newcomers to the State which adds plenty of interest. ULTIMATE DESTINY (2) comes down from NSW who is a 24 start maiden so form is nothing to right home about but draws well so gets every chance. FLO JO CARVALHO (6) is knocking on the door and will follow through well so will take plenty of beating if gets the gap. HELLO SWEETHEART (7) and MIKIYOURSOFINE (8) both come down from Mildura and bring consistent form with them and this not a strong race so keep safe. NOBLEZZZ ADVICE (9) has been going ok but the draw hurts so place is best. MAJOR IDEAL (1) put in a career best effort last week so a repeat effort can see him figuring from the pole.

TOP PICK: Ultimate Destiny (2) just leaning his way.

DANGERS: Flo Jo Carvalho (6) is the danger along with Mikiyoursofine (8).

ROUGHIE: Major Ideal (1) is the best value.

RATINGS: 2-6-1 7 8 9 10-3 4-5

SUGGESTED BET: Ultimate Destiny 2units win- Major ideal 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 2-1 2 6-1 2 6 7 8 9 10 $24 flexi 100% - 1 2- 1 2 6 7 8 9 10-1 2 6 $18 flexi 75%

LIKELY LEADER: Major Ideal will look to hold Ultimate Destiny early.

RACE 5: 19:44pm Impress Print & Design Pace 2180m

This is a 50 or better stand and it’s a tough one. SMOOTH DEAL (7) is proven at the track and from the tapes so if he brings something like his best will take about holding out. GRINNING AGAIN (3) finds his easiest race for a while and being a Kiwi his manners should be good from the tapes so can win. GOBSMACKED (4) is well up to this class with a safe getaway so keep safe. KENYA (8) is the backmarker but brings the best form so if he gets into the race earlier enough will take holding out. MY ULTIMATE ROMEO (6) is next best and draws to get a soft trip.

TOP PICK: Grinning Again (3) this is his best chance to get another win.

DANGERS: Kenya (8) is a danger along with Smooth Deal (7).

ROUGHIE: My Ultimate Romeo (6) is the value play.

RATINGS: 3-4 6 7 8-1 2 5

SUGGESTED BET: Grinning Again 2units win- Smooth Deal 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3 7-3 4 6 7 8-3 4 6 7 8 $30 flexi 125%

LIKELY LEADER: Grinning Again will be looking to ping on top early.

RACE 6: 20:16pm Become a Member Pace 2180m

This is a 55 or better stand and it’s a tough one. COLBY SANZ (9) will find this much easier than recent runs but comes off the 20m so if he begins quick he can prove too strong for his rivals. MAJOR LESTER (2) resumes and is hit and miss from the tapes but if he pinged on top they might not catch him. ONEHANDONEBOUNCE (5) is looking for a hat-trick of wins so the start is crucial to his chances. JUST FOLLOW ME (1), DAZZLE ME (3) and SETTEBELLO (8) are a trio that are capable f the breaks come their way so are a must for exotic players to include.

TOP PICK: Colby Sanz (9) happy to play at e/w odds.

DANGERS: Major Lester (2) looks a danger along with Dazzle Me (3).

ROUGHIE: Just Follow Me (1) has a chance at odds.

RATINGS: 9-1 2 3 5-8-4 6 7

SUGGESTED BET: Colby Sanz 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 9-1 2 3 5 6 8-1 2 3 5 6 8 $15 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Major Lester will be looking to ping on top early.

RACE 7: 20:48pm Big 4 Ulverstone Pace 2180m

The last of the night is for the up to 44 pacers from the mobile. CE PE THREE (2) gets a good draw so if was able to bully his way across early will take some catching. KIAVINO STRIDE (7) will push through so will settle close to be in the finish along with TASHS MATE (8) who will look to follow him through. CHRIS BE QUICK 3) and BRIAN WHO (4) are both opportunists who are capable of sprinting over the top of them late if the breaks come their way. VELOCITY STRIDE (6) looks the best at odds as gets a soft trip ORAVOIR (1) is racing out of his class but draws the pole so is open to improvement.

TOP PICK: Ce Pe Three (2) looks hard to beat.

DANGERS: Kiavino Stride (7) is a danger along with Brian Who (4).

ROUGHIE: Velocity Stride (6) has a sneaky chance.

RATINGS: 2-3 4 7 8-1 5 6

SUGGESTED BET: Ce Pe Three 2units win - Velocity Stride 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-3 4 6 7 8-3 4 6 7 8 $20 flexi 100% - 6-2 3 4 7 8-2 3 4 7 8 $10 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Ce Pe Three will look to work across Oravoir early.