Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

Launceston 29th September

We head to Launceston for a good eight event card on Sunday evening with the highlight being the Tasmanian Horse Transport Show Cup where we see the return of star pacer Mickey Oh but he won’t be easy off the 20m but has the class to overcome it.

There are a few shorties that will be winning again and they are Smooth Reason in race then in the following race Waterfront will be winning again as will Freeasabyrd in race four of the night.

Didyalousaroosta can resume as a winner in race sis of the night.

Settebello will give the hot favourite in the last plenty to think about.

RACE 1: 17:45pm Ladbrokes Easy Form Two Year Old 1680m

The first of the night is for the 2yos where only see a field of four to go around. SMOOTH REASON (3) is a very nice filly who fins this easier than her latest playing so I expect her find the lead and prove too good for her rivals. PAZIAH (4) showed gate speed to lead and never look liked being run down so look for him to have a look early and if did cross his chances are enhanced. GRIMSHAW BAY (2) has been consistent all season and always has to be kept safe and does draw to get the soft trip. JAKCLIFF (1) rounds out the field and will find this hard.

TOP PICK: Smooth Reason (3) looks the winner.

DANGERS: Paziah (4) looks the danger along with Grimshaw Bay (2).

RATINGS: 3-2 4-1

SUGGESTED BET: Smooth Reason 6units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-2-4 $20 flexi 2000%

LIKELY LEADER: Smooth Reason will be looking for the lead.

RACE 2: 18:19pm Ladbrokes Odds Surge Stakes 2200m

This is for the 3yo and older where the inform WATERFRONT (4) will be looking to continue her picket fence and there is no reason she won’t as she will spear to the lead and then prove too classy for her rivals. ALWAYBEALADY (2) is a handy mare that draws well so looks a great exacta chance. MUCHO MOVER (1) draws the pole so he to gets every chance to figure as can place as can the likes of ENSTEIN (5) and KARALTA ARTEMIS (6) if they bring their best.

TOP PICK: Waterfront (4) will be winning.

DANGERS: Alwaysbealady (2) is the danger along with Mucho Mover (1).

ROUGHIE: Karalta Artemis (6) gets his chance to improve at odds.

RATINGS: 4-1 2-5 6-3 7

SUGGESTED BET: Waterfront 10units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1 2-1 2 5 6 $30 flexi 500%

LIKELY LEADER: Waterfront will find the lead.

RACE 3: 18:54pm Lees Orchard Stakes 1680m

This is for the 65-79 pacers and MADDIS TIGER (1) is also looking to extent his winning streak as he continues to go through classes so despite this being harder he can be up to the task. GLENLEDI ELVIS (3) comes to Tasmania and will be looking to recapture the form that seen him win the Albury Cup earlier this year so form the draw keep safe. LETSGOBRO (2) and KIVIK (5) are both more than capable of figuring with the right trips in transit so include. HIGHWAY TO HEAVEN (4) and MODERN POWER (8) can sneak into a minor first four placing.

TOP PICK: Glenledi Elvis (3) happy to go his way.

DANGERS: Maddis Tiger (1) is the danger along with Kivik (5).

ROUGHIE: Letsgobro (2) is the value especially if finds the top.

RATINGS: 1 3-2 5-4 8-6 7

SUGGESTED BET: Glenledi Elvis 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 3-1 3-2 5 $20 flexi 500% - 1 3-2 5-1 3 $12 flexi 300%

LIKELY LEADER: Letsgobro and Glenledi Elvis will be looking to work across Maddis Tiger early.

RACE 4: 19:29pm Elders Insurance Launceston Pace 2200m

This is a 59-64 rated affair and the Emma Stewart dominance will continue with FREEASABYRD (1). She has been impressive at her past two and from the pole she should hold them out and get the job done. MISTA EAGLE (6) looks a great place bet as has been running on nicely and is suited in this field. NOVA BAXTER (2) has the draw to settle close enough in the run to get into the placings. BELIEVE IN FOREVER (8) will follow the favourite the through so is a must for the wider exotics.

TOP PICK: Freeasabyrd (1) should be winning.

DANGERS: Mista Eagle (6) is a danger along with Nova Baxter (2).

ROUGHIE: Believe in Forever (8) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1-2 6 8-3 4 5 7

SUGGESTED BET: Freeasabyrd 8units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 2 6 8-2 6 8 $30 flexi 500%

LIKELY LEADER: Freeasabyrd will need to run the gate hard to hold Bonny my Boy and Sharmey early.

RACE 5: 20:04pm Tasmanian Horse Transport Show Cup 2200m

This is the feature of the night the Show Cup for the open class pacers over the short trip. MICKEY OH (12) resumes off the 20m but has showed he has been in the top couple of pacers in the State so with absence of his arch rival this his chance to know take top billing. He will be hoping to step safely as they will run along upfront and make him chase but he is tough and will take plenty of holding out. KEAYANG FITZY (11) has done an amazing job since coming across from the Victoria and that was evident in his latest win so if he can begin better and settle close enough can win. ROCKANDAHARDPLACE (2) will look to ping on top and run them along as that’s when he races best so can figure. Conor Crook has two runners in MAGNETIC TERROR (10) who was a winner two starts back so can figure with a safe getaway. HIGH FLYING HARRY (8) who is having his first local run but did dash home a quick last quarter in a recent trial so keep an eye on the market moves. STEPPING STONES (1) is the best at especially if lobs leaders back.

TOP PICK: Mickey Oh (12) he rarely lets you down so happy to go his way.

DANGERS: Keayang Fitzy (11) is the danger along with Rockandahardplace (2).

ROUGHIE: Stepping Stones (1) sneaky chance at odds.

RATINGS: 12-1 2 8 10 11-3 4 5 7 9-6

SUGGESTED BET: Mickey Oh 3units win- Keayang Fitzy 2units win- Stepping Stones 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 1 2 8 10 11 12 $40 flexi 33.3% - 12-1 2 8 10 11-1 2 8 10 11 $10 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Rockandahardplace will look to work across Stepping Stones early.

RACE 6: 20:40pm Ladbrokes Bet Ticker Pace 2200m

This is for the 3yo’s and brings together a handy field. DIDYALOUSAROOSTA (9) is a handy type resuming and comes with a good trailing draw so look for him to be getting hard. MORE THAN THIS (3) is bursting to win and if she can find the top will give them something to chase. BUMPY J (2) was impressive leading throughout last week so the start will be interesting either way his in the mix. IDEN KAMIKAZI (5), KEAYANG KEVIN (6) and MIKI SANZ (7) are a trio that are more than capable so if the breaks come their will be around the mark. A SHADOW OF DOUBT (1) is one at odds that can fill a placing from the draw.

TOP PICK: Didyalousaroosta (9) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: More Than This (3) looks a danger along with Bumpy J (2).

ROUGHIE: Miki Sanz (7) looks the best at odds.

RATINGS: 9-2 3-5 6 7-1-4 8

SUGGESTED BET: Didyalousaroosta 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 9-2 3-1 2 3 5 6 7 $25 flexi 250% - 9-1 2 3 5 6 7-2 3 $20 flexi 200%

LIKELY LEADER: Bumpy J and More Than This will battle for lead.

RACE 7: 21:13pm 6TY Pace 2200m

This is a 50-53 where the consistent SVITOLINA LEIS (1) comes up with the pole so gets every chance to notch up a win so will take beating. PUNTARNO STRIDE (5) was racing in much better races than this 9-12 months ago so looks suited here as he could bully his way to the top. MAGOMEDOV (2) got a well deserved win last time and has the draw to figure again. ARTS CLASSIC (4) comes down from the Riverina and this is not strong so has to be included along with MY ULTIMATE ROMEO (7) and GOBSMACKED (8) who looks the best at odds. GOTTAHAVEAHOBBIE (6) is having first local but did dash home a quick last quarter in a recent trail so would shock.

TOP PICK: Puntarno Stride (5) will have a play at e/w odds.

DANGERS: Svitolina Leis (1) is a danger along with Arts Classic (4).

ROUGHIE: Gobsmacked (8) has a sneaky chance.

RATINGS: 5-1 2 4 7 8-9-3 6

SUGGESTED BET: Puntarno Stride 2units win-Gobsmacked 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 1 2 4 5 6 8 $40 flexi 33.3%

LIKELY LEADER: Puntarno Stride will look to bully his way across.

RACE 8 21:49pm Bevan Lee’s Butchery Stakes 1680m

The last of the night is for the 54-58 pacers over the sprint trip. HOW SWEET (1) is looking to make three on the trot and gets the draw to do so but could get crossed early but all in all is still the one to beat. SETTEBELLO (2) is the most likely to cross and if he does he will take plenty of caching as was good last week. KENYA (7) draws wide so it won’t be easy but can do work if needed so I wouldn’t totally dismiss. GYPSY AMOUR (3), YARECKON IM SWEET (5) and WILL HE PIKE (6) are a trio to include for the wider exotic players.

TOP PICK: Settebello (2) just lean his way at the better odds.

DANGERS: How Sweet (1) is the obvious danger along with Kenya (7) to a lesser extent.

ROUGHIE: Yareckon Im Sweet (5) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 1 2-3 4 5 6 7-8

SUGGESTED BET: Settebello 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-1-3 4 5 6 7 $15 flexi 300% - 1-2-3 4 5 6 7 $25 flexi 500%

LIKELY LEADER: Settebello will be looking to cross How Sweet early