Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt

 

Hobart 27th September

We head to Hobart on Friday night for a handy seven event card so let’s find a few winners.

The best of the night comes up in race five being Stranded Lollipop

Shes a Tiny Dancer looks a good gamble in race three.

The value play comes up the last being My Ultimate Jacko.

In race four we can back two runners in Magic Pebbles and Iden Black Prince as they will be e/w odds.

RACE 1: 17:40pm Thompson Floor Coverings Pace 2090m

The first of the night is for the 55-59 rated pacers. KENYA (4) clearly brings the best formlines into the race and can do work in his races which he will have to do here. KERALA STAR (1) gets the draw to run a better race as can lead or take a sit either way is a player. SHARMEY (2) grows a leg in front so can get across the polemarker his chances are enhanced. CAPTAIN DAN (5) will be looking to get over the top of them late so will be hoping for a solid tempo.

TOP PICK: Kenya (4) is the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Kerala Star (1) looks a danger along with Captain Dan (5).

ROUGHIE: Sharmey (2) is clearly next best.

RATINGS: 4-1 2 5-3 6

SUGGESTED BET: Kenya 3units win- Kerala Star 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 4-1 4 5-1 2 4 5 $30 flexi 250%

LIKELY LEADER: Sharmey will be looking to work across Kerala Star early.

RACE 2: 20:15pm Godfrey Joinery Pace 1609m

This a 46-49 affair and all runners have some chance. REMEMBER ME NOW (6) grows a leg in front so will look to ping across early and if he does will take catching. KIAVINO STRIDE (4) had been close up of late and the small suits and he is another that races best on speed. COLBY ART (2) and MAYLEEJAE EAGLE (3) will be just sitting behind them so will get their chances to get over the top late with same being said for ROCKS ROY (5) who is racing well. ONEHANDONEBOUNCE (1) is new to the State and gets the draw to figure so watch for a market push as a better guide to his chances.

TOP PICK: Colby Art (2) gets his chance to bounce back

DANGERS: Rocks Roy (5) looks a danger along with Kiavino Stride (4).

ROUGHIE: Mayleejae Eagle (3) is the value play

RATINGS: 2-1 3 4 5 6

SUGGESTED BET: Colby Art 2units win- Mayleejae Eagle 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2 5-field-field $30 flexi 75%

LIKELY LEADER: Kiavino Stride and Remember Me Now will be looking to get on speed.

RACE 3: 18:48pm Elite Heat Pace 1609m

This is a race for the 3yo fillies and older mares and brings a handy field together. FREE TO PLAY (3) has won her last three and despite this being a bit stronger she is one they have to beat. SHES A TINY DANCER (6) is racing well and has run into a couple of handy types of late but this looks her best chance to overcome the Emma Stewart trained runners. JILLIBY MENDOZA (2) is an older mare who is always thereabouts so despite looks a chance from the draw. CHENIN BEACH (7) is another resuming and has drawn the top of the track so will find it tough but could fill a minor placing. SUE NIEN (1) has a soft draw so fill a minor first four spot.

TOP PICK: Shes a Tiny Dancer (6) just leaning her way at the better value.

DANGERS: Free to Play (3) is the he danger along with Jilliby Mendoza (2).

ROUGHIE: Chenin Beach (7) is next best.

RATINGS: 6-2 3-1 7-5

SUGGESTED BET: Shes a Tiny Dancer 2units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-3-1 2 7 $15 flexi 500% - 6-1 2 7-3 $9 flexi 300%

LIKELY LEADER: Free to Play looks the leader but Shes a Tiny Dancer has early speed so could cross if they pushed the button.

RACE 4: 19:15pm Tassie Supertilt Pace 2090m

Here we have a 50-54 and we see a full field. IDEN BLACK PRINCE (9) has been racing well and has drawn to get a good run through early so looks hard to hold out. LAID BACK (3) has been very costly at his past two so happy to give another chance to see if he can bounce back. MAGIC PEBBLES (4) will look to push forward and could cross and if she does her chances are enhanced. CLIFFHANGER (2) will be looking to hold a forward position with SNEAKY PEAK (8) drawn to follow through who was impressive last week with a similar trip. ALEXIS ROCKET (7), GOTTAHAVEAHOBBIE (10) and SMOOTH DEAL (13) are a trio to include for the wider exotic players.

TOP PICK: Iden Black Prince (9) looks a good e/w play.

DANGERS: Magic Pebbles (4) looks a danger along with Sneaky Peak (8).

ROUGHIE: Gottahaveahobbie (10) could give some cheek at odds.

RATINGS: 9-3 4 8-2 6 7 10 11 13-5 12

SUGGESTED BET: Iden Black Prince 2units win- Magic Pebbles 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4 9-3 4 7 8 9 10 11 13-3 4 7 8 9 10 11 13 $42 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Magic Pebbles and Cliffhanger will be the two battling for the lead.

RACE 5: 19:45pm Downton Property Pace 2090m

This is for the 3yo and older and impressive last start winner STRANDED LOLLIPOP (8) looks one of the better bets of the night. He raced away last time beating a similar field so barring accidents should be winning. BUMPY J (4) did run second in that race and has improved since so looks the danger. JILLIBY SORRENTO (2) showed enough at first local run to suggest he can hold on for a placing along with the likes of SOHO UNDERTAKER (3) and PEANUT SUTTER (6) who is always thereabouts.

TOP PICK: Stranded Lollipop (8) is clearly the one to beat.

DANGERS: Bumpy J (4) is the danger along with Jilliby Sorrento (2).

ROUGHIE: Peanut Sutter (6) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 8-2 4-3 6-1 7 9-5

SUGGESTED BET: Stranded Lollipop 6units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-2 4-2 3 4 6 $30 flexi 500%

LIKELY LEADER: Jilliby Sorrento and Bumpy J will battle for the lead.

RACE 6: 20:13pm Andrew Wood Builder Pace 2090m

Here we have a 40-45 and it’s a tough one to access. FURY DAN (3) is one paced but keeps on giving so if he has able to work to the lead he will take plenty of getting past. SAPPHIRE GAMBLER (4) is bursting to breakthrough and he will get every chance again. TASHS MATE (2) was impressive at first local run and has been close up at his past two so from the draw has to be included. JACK JAMES (9) draws to get the run he likes and can sprint for 200m so if close enough looks the best at odds. SIR ROMAN (5), LALIBELA (6) and DEADLY ASSASSIN (7) are a trio to include for the wider exotic players.

TOP PICK: Fury Dan (3) happy to go his way.

DANGERS: Sapphire Gambler (4) looks the danger along with Tashs Mate (2).

ROUGHIE: Jack James (9) is the best at odds.

RATINGS: 3-2 4-5 6 7 9-1 8

SUGGESTED BET: Fury Dan 2units win- Jack James 1unit win

EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 2 3 4 5 9 $30 flexi 50%

LIKELY LEADER: Sir Roman has the speed to cross with Sapphire Gambler also pushing forward.

RACE 7: 20:47pm Stride Ahead Support Pty Ltd Pace 2090m

The last of the night is for the up to 39 rated pacers. MY ULTIMATE JACKO (3) looks well placed in the class and from the draw looks very hard to beat. TIGERLICIOUS (1) has the pole so will settle on speed so has to be included along with JAY MILLER (2) who could work to the lead. NINE DIAMONDS (5) comes off a freshen up and her best is good enough to take this out so looks for a positive market push. ELENNA (4) and BRIAN WHO (7) are capable of running into a minor placing.

TOP PICK: Our Ultimate Jacko (3) looks the hardest to beat.

DANGERS: Tigerlicious (1) looks a danger along with Nine Diamonds (5).

ROUGHIE: Elenna (4) can improve at odds.

RATINGS: 3-1 2 5-4 6 7 8

SUGGESTED BET: My Ultimate Jacko 3units win

EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-1 2 5-field $18 flexi 100%

LIKELY LEADER: Tigerlicious and Jay Miller will battle for early lead with Rock on Playboy a query from out wider.