Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Hobart 30th June
We head to Hobart for a nine event card and looks a competitive night of racing.
Value is hard to find but a winner is a winner.
Vincenzo should get punters off to a good start early in race one then we will back up in race three with Stone Writer who should prove too quick for his rivals.
Magic Joe can go one better in race five and get the job done.
Nyack will prove too classy in race six but will be no value.
Jack James can go back to back and win race eight.
RACE 1: 16:53pm Tasmanian Horse Transport Pace 1609m
The first of the night is for the 3yo and older over the sprint trip. VINCENZO (2) beat similar opposition last time so is the one to beat as draws to advantage and should get punters off to a good start. SWIMINTHERIVER (4) ran second to him last start when lead so back to the shorter trip he should close the gap and is the danger. ASHANTE QUEEN (1) resumes and gets the draw to stalk the leaders so has a sneaky chance. HURRICANE ROCK (3) and FIESTA STRIDE (6) are the more than capable so can fill a placing.
TOP PICK: Vincenzo (2) is the one to beat.
DANGERS: Swimintheriver (4) is the danger along with Ashante Queen (1).
ROUGHIE: Fiesta Stride (6) looks the best at odds.
RATINGS: 2-1 4-3 6-5
SUGGESTED BET: Vincenzo 4units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2-1 4-1 3 4 6 $30 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: Vincenzo and Swimintheriver will battle for the early lead.
RACE 2: 17:23pm Meeker Fillies and Mares Series 2090m
This is for the fillies and mares and we see the return of SWIATEK LEIS (6) who was the standout filly last season. She draws wide but is tough so after a solid trial she will take plenty of holding out. TAMBROS TILLY (3) has race fitness on her side and she looks the likely leader so will give them plenty to chase. CHENIN BEACH (2) also resumes and she was not far away from Swiatek Leis so if she can sit behind them she will get her chance to finish off. SVITOLINA LEIS (4) is next best and wouldn’t entirely shock to see her in the finish.
TOP PICK: Swiatek Leis (6) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Tambros Tilly (3) looks the danger along with Chenin Beach (2).
ROUGHIE: Svitolina Leis (4) is the knockout chance.
RATINGS: 6-2 3 4-5-1
SUGGESTED BET: Swiatek Leis 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-2 3 4 -2 3 4 $18 flexi 300%- 2 3 4 -6-2 3 4 $12 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Tambros Tilly can bully her way to the lead.
RACE 3: 17:56pm Prydes Easifeed Pace 1609m
Here we have a race for the maiden 2yo’s and we see a very nice type resuming by the way of STONE WRITER (1). He tuned up for this with a good trial where he showed a good turn of foot so from the pole should be winning if on best behavior. FLYING VINNIE (6) is progressing nicely so if he can be within striking distance will make a race of it despite the draw. HES FIRST CLASS (4) is another on the improve so is a must for the exotic players to include along with BOLT OF COBARGO (5) who is always around the mark. LUCKY EMMA (3) is open to improvement as I doubt they’ll be going 1:57 here so can place. The two debutantes are SHADES OF SILK (2) and TERESA DILLON (7) who may find this a bit tough on debut but will pay to watch for the future.
TOP PICK: Stone Writer (1) is the one to beat.
DANGERS: Flying Vinnie (6) is the danger along with Hes First Class (4).
ROUGHIE: Bolt of Cobargo (5) looks the best at odds.
RATINGS: 1-6-4 5-2 3 7
SUGGESTED BET: Stone Writer 4units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1-6-4 5 7 $30 flexi 1000%
LIKELY LEADER: Stone Writer will be looking to hold Bolt of Cobargo early.
RACE 4: 18:34pm Smithawards Pace 2090m
This is for the 60-69 rated pacers and it’s a tricky one to access. MISTER FINNIGAN (3) is nearing another win and has the draw to be handy throughout so will be in the finish. LANCELOT (8) is struggling but gets his chance to run an improved race with a good run through early. MISTA EAGLE (4) brings the best form into the race and didn’t have much luck last time so can bounce back. SOUTHERN LUCK (6) and WE SALUTE YOU (7) will be hoping they run along up front as should get their chances late to figure. MONEYS NO ISSUE (1) draws the pole so can fill a placing as can PUNTARNO STRIDE (5) who continues to drop in grade.
TOP PICK: Mister Finnigan (3) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Mista Eagle (4) is the danger along with Lancelot (8).
ROUGHIE: Puntarno Stride (5) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 3-4 6 7 8-1 2 5
SUGGESTED BET: Mister Finnigan 2units win- Lancelot 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3 4 8-3 4 5 6 7 8-3 4 5 6 7 8 $30 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: Mister Finnigan and Puntarno Stride will look to push forward early.
RACE 5: 19:12pm Fehlbergs Produce Sprintlane Pace 2090m
This is for the 55-59 rated pacers. NOVA BAXTER (2) looks well placed after winning two out of her last three and also gets the perfect draw so will take plenty of beating. MAGIC JOE (5) is bursting to breakthrough but often finds one better but will win one soon and this could be it. SPOOKY GIRL (1) is racing below her best but if can hold leaders back can improve. BETTER EXCLUSIVE (4), DEBT TILL WE PART (5), MAJOR DAVVIN (8), NO NUKES SKIPPER (10) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic players in what is an open race. EYE SEE DOUBLE (11) and CAPTAIN DAN (12) have drawn out the back but if the breaks come their way their best is good enough so wouldn’t shock.
TOP PICK: Magic Joe (5) lets hope he produces a bit of magic and cross the line in front.
DANGERS: Nova Baxter (2) is the danger along with Spooky Girl (1).
ROUGHIE: Major Davvin (8) drops in grade and can improve.
RATINGS: 5-2-1 4 5 8 10 11 12-7 13-3
SUGGESTED BET: Magic Joe 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2 5-2 5-field $30 flexi 150% - 2 5-field-2 5 $20 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Better Exclusive and Magic Joe can push forward early with Spooky and Nova Baxter looking to hold their ground.
RACE 6: 19:37pm The Beautide 3rd August Pace 2090m
This is the open class race of the night where we see NYACK (5) looking to get back into the winners list and confirm his favoritism for the upcoming Beautide Final in August and he will be wanting to care of these and he should prove too quick for his rivals. Stablemate STEPPING STONES (1) and THE SHALLOWS (8) draw to get soft trips along the pegs and that will see them get every chance to run a placing. COOL WATER PADDY (6) is going ok and back to the mobile suits but the draw hurts as I doubt he can cross early so a placing also looks best. WATTABOUT SPANGHER (4) is racing well and will sit off them and look to close late so include for the exotics.
TOP PICK: Nyack (5) should be too classy.
DANGERS: Stepping Stones (1) is the danger along with The Shallows (8).
ROUGHIE: Wattabout Spangher (4) can spice up the exotics.
RATINGS: 5-1 4 6 8-2 7-3
SUGGESTED BET: Nyack 6units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5-1-4 6 8 $15 flexi 500% - 5-4 6 8-1 $15 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: James Cagney will look to lead early then hand to Nyack.
RACE 7: 20:10pm More Confidence Consulting Pace 2090m
Here we have a pretty handy 70-79 rated affair. ALL FOR DAVE (1) will find this easier as will lead or take a sit either way will take holding out. CUSTOM HARLEY (2) was fair last week but did do the work so from the draw will be on speed and looking to bounce back. LETSGOBRO (4) will have a look early and gets to the pegs first his chances are enhanced. IYLAC PAKARIA (5) is a query resuming as a handy mare on her night so watch a market move as a better guide to her chances. SHARKATTACK (3) has had a great season and continues to be a giant killer as always wins at good odds and wouldn’t shock if he gobbled them up late. ARDEN ROANOKE (8) and KHAKI NUI (9) get soft trips on back of the speed so can sneak a minor first four placing.
TOP PICK: Letsgobro (4) happy to with him e/w.
DANGERS: Custom Harley (2) is the danger along with Sharkattack (3).
ROUGHIE: Arden Roanoke (8) sneaky place chance at odds.
RATINGS: 4-1 2 3 5-6 7 8 9-10
SUGGESTED BET: Letsgobro 2units win- Sharkattack 1unit win.
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3 4-1 2 3 4-1 2 3 4 5 8 9 $36 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Letsgobro will have a good crack at crossing All for Dave early.
RACE 8 20:40pm Cavalor Equicare Pace 1609m
The last leg of the quadrella is for the 50-54 pacers over the sprint trip. JACK JAMES (9) got a well deserved win last start and from his trailing draw should push through and be close enough to get his chance late. ARTYBOY GLENWOOD (10) is racing well but does race better on speed but can still give some cheek from the second row. DONNY IN PARIS (7) will look to chance his arm early and run the gate so if gets on speed will take getting past. SERIOUSLY SAM (1) will be fitter and will find this easier so from the pole wouldn’t shock. MIKISPUR (3), SHOOIN (5), ALAPHILIPPE (6) and MADAME ANNIE (11) are a quartet to include for the wider exotic players.
TOP PICK: Jack James (9) gets every chance to go back to back.
DANGERS: Artyboy Glenwood (10) is the danger along with Donny in Paris (7).
ROUGHIE: Madame Annie (11) will be running on at odds.
RATINGS: 9-1 7 10 11-2 3 5 6 8-4 12
SUGGESTED BET: Jack James 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 9 10-9 10-1 2 3 5 6 7 8 11 $32 flexi 200% - 9 10-1 2 3 5 6 7 8 11-9 10 $24 flexi 150%
LIKELY LEADER: Mikispur and Shooin will be looking to push forward with Donny in Paris also likely to have a look.
RACE 9 21:12pm Ladbrokes Hub Pace 2090m
The last of the night we see a field of six to go round and its not easy but if HERES HENRY (2) runs up to his latest effort he will take plenty of beating in this line up. MAYLEEJAE EAGLE (3) will find this easier and he is up to taking this out so keep safe. KIAVINO STRIDE (5) is free running so looks the leader and if happened to bring something like his best he would take catching. CINOCAL JAMANE (4) and ONEOFTHELADS (6) are out of form but get ever chance to find some in this line up. FIVEFORTY (1) round out the field and draws the pole so wouldn’t shock if held on for a placing.
TOP PICK: Mayleejae Eagle (3) just leaning his way.
DANGERS: Heres Henry (2) is the danger along with Kiavino Stride (5).
ROUGHIE: Cinocal Jamane (4) can improve at odds.
RATINGS: 3-2 5-1 4 6
SUGGESTED BET: Mayleejae Eagle 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 2 3-2 3 4 5-2 3 4 5 $30 flexi 250%
LIKELY LEADER: Kiavino Stride will be looking for the top.
